Tuesday, August 30, 2011

New Season Same Old Spanish Story

Madrid win 6-0 away and Barca win 5-0 at home.... Have we seen this before? Its just the same old story in Spain. At least in England it can be argued that its a 3 horse race but it really is just a scrap between Madrid and Barca in Spain.

Finding "value" in these matches will be tricky. Madrid were 1.31 and Barca were 1.22 and after the first week of results those odds can be considered generous. I think we will be seeing barca at 1.07ish most weeks at the Nou Camp so if you think someone can give them a game then lay away and good luck! Goals will be the most likely way to go but even those markets will be correcting themselves now! I was happy to take on the over 1.5 goals market last night and was delighted to be done with it by half time. Also had a couple of small bets on the tennis yesterday but in the first round of slams the odds tend to be gash!

The weekend was nice and relaxed on the betting front with nothing causing me huge concern. Lay l'arse at OT and sit back and watch them lose 8-2 was a pleasing way to spend a Sunday afternoon. Also stole a few quid on Chelsea and Liverpool on Saturday. Was disappointed to see that Serie A had gone on strike. Its my favourite league to bet on!

Word from the moaning Federer is that the courts are playing very slow at Flushing Meadows. This will suit Nole and Murray the most and should help Nadal as well. Its bad for Rog I think but we'll see how he progresses. As much as I hate to admit it, but if his head is right, the value is with Muzza. But I've seen Nadal pull the "play gash before the grand slam, turn up and win it" trick a few times before, particularly when its not the clay season.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011


Ok then. How was the Summer for you all? Mine was a bit mental and apart from a few bets which I mentioned on the last post I did nothing whatsoever on the gambling front. I think a bit of time off was needed. My head was just fried from last season and this was a Summer where no major football tournaments were going on so I took advantage of the rest time.

One thing I did learn (and yes I should know this already) is that patience is everything. There were so many tennis matches in particular that I watched over the Summer where waiting and waiting and waiting (you get the idea) before making your move would have paid dividends. I used to be a pre match lumper and hope for the best sort of guy when it came to the tennis but that approach is simply tragic. When you are depending on just one player to bring home the money, you just have to wait to see how things are going before taking part... This was my approach to the Murray Djoker match on Sunday and worked well so hopefully I can get involved in the US Open but it wont be the madness that it was last year..... I hope.....

Sticking to the patience theme, I didnt have a single bet on the first weekend of the premiership. Everything just looked filthy and I wanted to see how teams would start. Chelsea at Stoke, l'arse at Newcastle, Villa at Fulham, Utd at West Brom! No thanks to all of those. Its a cautious time because surely people are hoping to start the season with a bang by nailing a few big wins, its really not the time for it yet. I've been playing around with correct score and match odds for matchday 2 and its worked well. Those are my 2 main (only) strategies at the moment. I felt the 0-0 in the Utd Spurs match was way overpriced at 16.5 and was able to trade that. I did the same for the Liverpool l'arse match. Its a favorable trading market because the prices are big. You just have to hope you make the right moves. Im happy notching up 20 and 30 euro here and there and over the course of a week it can really add up. There is more value in match odds but I feel more secure in correct score. Like being caught between a wife and a mistress.... We will keep the mistress on speed dial for now!

Alot of talk on the forums about moving to Betdaq. Im still loyal to betfair for now. Lets compare the liquidity in a specific market for the two "exchange". Udinese V L'arse tonight: Betdaq €50,000 matched, Betfair €504,000 matched... Its an easy choice for now. Happy gambling!