Thursday, April 28, 2011

Champions League Outright Part Three

And we're all done with the outright market and it looks very satisfactory indeed. Dont want to take any chances so decided to go even on all 4 teams even though it looks like a Utd Barca final. Apologies for the lack of updates over the past couple of weeks but I've been taking a break due to an extremely strained relationship with my other half and I have a big project to do as part of my diploma....

Hoping to get back on the horse this weekend and looking forward to hopefully having a good one! I've been reading around the various blogs and everyone seems to be doing ok at the moment so lets hope we can have a good end to the season and a great Summer! A good post on punting versus trading by denman as well. Good luck everyone! Cheers!

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Last 30 Days......

Its been one hell of a ride this past month. A mixture of aggression, luck and finally getting a phone that I can use Betfair on have all contributed to the madness. I think the staking has helped as well. Back in my college days I would have a maximum bet of around €1500 which is slightly mad and I wasnt getting the returns that would have justified risking that much. I lowered that to €1000 last Summer but again it was leading to mistakes proving too costly. Since the New Year my maximum bets are €500 and that means that I've had no option but to go out and find value which has lead to success at least for now anyway.... Long gone are the days of backing short odds or laying teams at anywhere between 15 and 50! Its a rite of passage that I think alot of gamblers go through before realising that its really not the way to go. Im not against backing at short odds or accusing those backers of being "money buyers" but its just more hassle than its worth at the end of the day.

This weekend again proved profitable. Utd were at 1.5 to beat Fulham? And no I wasnt backing it just because it was Utd at Old Trafford so they will definitely win. Fulhams away record has been dreadful. Utds home record has been sublime only dropping 2 points all season. A rejuvenated Damien Duff was out injured. Utd started with a relatively strong team: Vidic, Evra, Berba, Nani, Valencia.... 1.5 was just seemed a bit big.  Barca and l'arse also contributed nice wins.

Decided to lay Liverpool on Monday night. Mistake. Cant win all the time dont you know. City were just woeful on the night and Liverpool were impressive. It happens. The sight of seeing Tevez limp off and knowing he wont be fit for Saturdays match was comfort enough. Still cant believe Carroll is claiming the third goal. All the replays I saw showed that it was an og....

Onto last nights fun and had Utd to qualify. Was confident throughout although there were a few nervy spells. Park baning that one in seconds after the drog was delightful. You know things are going your way when something like that happens. Happy days! Havent touched the IPL and have no intention of doing so. I find the games a bit boring, the cricket amateurish at times and the markets are getting more efficient than they were when the tournament first started. Also Im busy pretending to do some work during the day anyway. Thats hard enough in itself! Can the next 30 days be as good? Unlikely but we'll see what happens. The problem with gambling is as soon as you think you've cracked it, it will bite you in the ass so no point trying to predict what will happen! Good luck everyone!

Friday, April 8, 2011

Law of Attraction??

"The law of attraction is a metaphysical New Thought belief that like attracts like, that positive and negative thinking bring about positive and negative physical results, respectively."

Anybody else buying this theory?? I've read up about it alot and watched the documentary "the secret" but its a bit too far fetched for my liking. Basically its the belief that if you wish hard enough to be rich/successful etc. that the universe will definitely reward you for your positivity! I think positive thinking is important, particularly when betting. You need to have faith in what you're backing otherwise you'll get yourself in serious bother and likely be more angry when you lose. Thats what I've found from my experiences anyway. The old PMA helps (no not PMS, PMA - Positive Mental Attitude) and it can help get through the losing times as well as the winning ones.

Enough of the psychology and more gambling talk! Im liking this run of form at the moment. Seem to be finding different value in different places whether it be another sports apart from football or different markets within football. Important to be flexible particularly at this stage of the season. Match odds are starting to become dangerous territory with some teams starting to have nothing to play for. We can now include Real Madrid La Liga matches in that category for the rest of the season.

Backed India and Sri Lanka to win their semi finals. Went bigger on the Lankans but they gave us that little bit of heart failure during that mini collapse. Thankfully Danny V settled the nerves by throwing the ball to Jesse Ryder and the game was done. You have to wonder what these captains are thinking sometimes. And staying with that theme of what players are thinking, we call on our second witness, arise Sir Misbah Ul Haq! Block block block your way to a 50 when the teams run rate is increasing over by over. Great stuff! As some betfair forumite put it "Sensible innings by Misbah, always important to see off the shine on the second new ball." Comical stuff. Was it bent? Probably not but how can a guy who hit the ball out of the park for fun in the world 20-20 a few years ago suddenly play like Boycott on a Thursday morning of a test match? Bizzare.

Football still treating me well also. Have been playing around with match odds as well as correct score but this week I also found what I felt to be value in the over 1.5 market. Last night the Villareal and Twente match was 1.37 for over 1.5??? I felt it was just too high. Usually you see that market at in the low to mid 1.2's for two attacking teams like that. Anyway, Im not complaining. I wanted to have a good mid week because last weekend was a quiet one for me anyway. A satisfactory win on the utd match was the highlight really. Life is proving quite expensive at the moment but Im trying hard not to let it impact my betting as gambling is at its most dangerous when its a necessity imo! Lets hope for more good times ahead. Good luck everyone!