Thursday, November 3, 2011

Happy November!

Howdy doody to everyone out there! Its been a tough few weeks hence the lack of blogging. Unfortunately I had to fork out on major repairs on my car so had to withdraw the €700 I had built up in the challenge. Also I've started travelling from Galway to Dublin for work on the bus every single day as I havent been able to find a new place to live since leaving the ex! And that thing called work gets in the way of all the fun of everything but I've just been told I got a 20% pay increase so happy days! All that effort has finally paid off....

Last weekend was a perfect time to start betting again. Just got paid, the break did me good and I thought I would be in a good frame of mind and had no distractions whatsoever! So it was quite a comedown when the second bet of the weekend did my bloody nuts in! Im usually not a bet on a match when its nearly over type of guy. Nearly all my match odds bets are placed pre match and the odd one at half time. I think sometimes betting in play can be affected by the adrenaline of it all and the "oh well they definitely wont lose now" bullshit thoughts that enter your head. Whereas pre match Im far more relaxed and thoughts are more clear. Note to self: If I want an adrenaline rush, jump out of a plane... It was slightly unlucky though. I mean literally 30 seconds after my bet was placed, JT fell on his arse and RVP was through. Im not one to usually stand up for JT and I think the guy is scum but the backpass was awful by Malouda. Even if JT didnt fall (or dive and pretend he slipped as a few conspiracy theorists stated after the match) RVP was getting there anyway imo!

So a slight rescue mission was required. There is literally nothing more annoying then when you take a break, come back and then lose straight away. So I had to work really hard over Saturday and Sunday to make it up and thankfully I did. Barca -1, City to win, correct score trades in Spain and Italy and of course Spurs to beat QPR. Really enjoyed that one. Alot of clever folks saying Spurs were too short on the BF forum... There isnt a more balanced midfield in the PL at the moment than Bale, Parker, Modric and Lennon. Reminds me of the Giggs, Keane, Scholes and Beckham midfield of 99. The enforcer, creator and the width. Its such a simple game when you can put together a 4 man midfield like that! And Spurs can beat anyone at the Lane when they're in that kind of form.

Been playing it nice and simple with the Champions League as well. Not sure I will have a bet on the last 2 match days. Most teams really have nothing to play for but knowing me I will probably be tempted by something. I also had my first X Factor bet on Sunday. Now usually I wouldnt but Sophie to go was basically free money imo (and I hate that phrase!). Louis was definitely going to boot her out as the night before he said she was like a secretary who sang at weekends, not that theres anything wrong with that! And Kelly was always gonna save her precious Misha B so I just needed one of the other judges to give her the boot and Tulissa did and Barlow said he was going to do the same. Boom! 17 majestic euro thanks to a lack of a social life at weekends. LIVING. THE. DREAM.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

I dont like cricket....

Everything going well in the €100 challenge all things considered. Only one thing has tripped me up and that is my disastrous flutters on T20 cricket... Its impossible to describe the relationship I have with cricket and T20 in particular. Its like walking into a restaurant and seeing a very expensive piece of cake. The cake looks nice to eat but I know that deep down I wont enjoy eating it, it will give me diarrhoea and I will probably end up going to the doctor and forking out on medical bills so best off to just have a sausage roll instead but I still cant help but taste a bit of the cake because everyone else seems to be enjoying eating it! I've had 29 bets since starting the challenge. 27 were winners. 2 were losers. Both losers were the 2 cricket bets I've had. The screen shot represents the full challenge to date!

In fairness to me, a number 10 hitting the last ball for 6 is slightly unfortunate and the Windies cocked things up yesterday as well but T20 is just not for me. I never feel like I have any control at all whereas with football or tennis I feel like I have a better chance of knowing what the market is going to do. I could see why people do so well from it though. The market was moving every single ball during yesterdays match and there always seems to be an over reaction after a wicket falls which is playing into traders hands surely?? Windies were sub 1.2 when ashraful went but Rahim was the key man anyway. If the market is surprised that Ashraful gives his wicket away then it really hasnt seen Ashraful play at all has it?? Not that Im much better because I lost as well but I learnt quite a bit just sitting at work watching the market move. Interesting stuff.

If Im allowed to complain about bad luck in the cricket then surely I have to acknowledge good luck as well. I layed Armenia last night for a liablity of around 580! Their keeper gets wrongly sent off, they score a tragic own goal, their new keeper makes a silly mistake and Ireland still were outplayed for most of the match! If it stays 11 v 11 Armenia win that match without a doubt imo. By far the classier outfit while Ireland as much as I hate to say it are bloody cack. Only looked slightly better when Walters, Fahey and Hunt came on but still it wasnt exactly like watching Barcelona was it?? Oh well. I'll take my win and thats that!

Been following my gut in the tennis and its paying off nicely. Made a handy few quid on Murray last week. He looked sensational to be honest. Im not a Murray fan whatsoever and when it comes to grand slams he is the fourth best player in the world but when he's in that kind of form in 3 set matches he can beat the lot and you just need to get as much as you can on him because when he's hot he's shit hot. Anderson (who is always worth a back) and Ferrer also got me nice wins and Im really enjoying watching an in form Ferrero! Love that guy... Alot of value on Berdych these days as well now that he finally seems to remember how well he can actually play.

Off to London next week for my first work trip to talk about the company at an event... Nervous times. 1.2 that some banker asshole will ask me a question about data management that I wont be able to answer and I end up running out of the building...

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Better Days

After alot of thinking following my previous post I decided that its easier just not being an idiot and sticking to a relatively successful strategy instead of trying to be a hero and go for the kamikaze approach. As said in the last post I decided to take a step back from the usual amounts that I bet and instead just start with €100 and go from there. Well it was actually 105 I think!

The results were extremely encouraging for a number of reasons: I had to somehow find more value than I usually would because of the lower amount I was playing around with; I had to be disciplined as some of the matches turned out to be slightly unpredictable; and most importantly the amount that I won in the last 7 days is a profit that I would be delighted with when using a bank of 300-500 instead of 100. As mentioned in one of my previous posts though, if you think you are half decent at this gambling lark then you should be able to make a good profit without needing a big bank! Mistakes will inevitably come at some stage as they always seem to do but I've definitely progressed in the last few weeks compared to the naivety I was showing at the start of the season.

Cant really say that everything went totally to plan. Anzhi last minute equaliser (after they conceded on 88 mins) was slightly fortunate and also Utd were holding on big time against Stoke after that Crouch goal. Utd and Madrid were almost the exact same odds on Tuesday night at around 1.22ish which was a bit mad. Utd having a slight injury crisis and Basle are very underrated. Although at 2-0 at half time who would have complained??? Compare this to Madrid who practically had a full squad to choose from bar 2 injuries against an Ajax side that has been cack athis season and who lost to this Madrid side twice last season home and away.

Was happyish to take the 1.18 on Barca yesterday morning? Was this value? Well yes to me it was. Barca needing to get a win on the board after the Milan debacle. Pep said he was going to pick a strong side and also BATE are SPL standard which usually helps when backing a team at crap odds. Think Barca were around 1.14/1.15 by kick off anyway... Was tempted to go Barca -1 but the only concern was that Peps away record in Europe is one of the only blots in an otherwise exemplary managerial copybook. They rarely win away as comfortably in Europe as you'd assume... That doesnt really matter though when they could probably beat a combined 11 featuring Jesus, Moses, The Incredible Hulk and Chuck Norris 4-0 at the Camp Nou (unless of course AC Milan come to town, feckers). Good luck everyone!

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Just Not Good Enough

Ok, dont get me wrong here and there are times in the last few years where I would have given my left nut to see any sort of profit come out of 30 days of graft but this time its just not good enough. 2 weeks ago I was up nearly a grand and then just completely went awol after a smallish loss on the Roma match. Lost discipline? Dirty chase? Clueless mug? Yes probably all 3!

I just dont understand myself sometimes... When everything is going so well, the strategies are paying off, trading provides profit and then I just start lumping on for no reason??? Its the gamblers graveyard when you behave like that. Im not going to say its down to hard luck because its not. Teams arent going to win every week... Mugs like AC Milan are allowed to score last minute equalisers, even at the Nou Camp! 40 mins to trade out for a nice profit was plenty. It was just a lack of self control and greed. Losses will come, thats inevitable. Its the traders job to minimise the loss to the best of their ability and then proceed with caution next time, not act the lunatic because you're pissed off with yourself.

We've been here before but after nearly 4 years I was hoping bad habits would have all been erased by now. The old "I lost but Im having fun" just doesnt do it any more and losing is never fun anyway. Taking a sort of break from things this weekend but will still play around with a couple of things, just not as heavy.

I've also realised how much your personal life can affect your decision making process and if you dont have a clear head you'll have an empty bank! So I've left the girlfriend of the last 11 months to focus more on my job firstly and also to make a better shot at trading. It wasnt just for those 2 reasons. There were a million reasons why leaving was the right choice and I do feel relieved that the whole episode is over.

As for the betdaq challenge, I reached 100ish before going back down to 29 and getting it up to 40 and I've withdrawn it now. Betdaq is rather poor. Liquidity is gash, functionality inefficient and I just didnt enjoy the experiment. Made a solid tenner though... We can celebrate that tonight. To Arthur!!!

As a separate "challenge" to my usual trading I'll be doing a €100-??? sort of thing just to see where it takes me. Good luck everyone and lets keep our heads screwed on tightly for a change! Cheers!

Monday, September 12, 2011

Betdaq €30 Challenge

Decided to sign up for Betdaq a few weeks ago as they were giving me a free €30 bet. Actually you have to lodge €30 and if you lose that bet they refund you apparently.... Who knows whether they actually do or not. 11 bets later and Im up to €83. Its weird, at times Im just so loose with my betfair bank but with the betdaq Im scrapping for my life and protecting it more than I've ever protected my betfair cash. I suppose there is a bit of satisfaction building up a small bank and once you set yourself a challenge you will do whatever it takes to succeed with it.

I've been posting my results on twitter just to keep my tweets sort of interesting but I think it would be more beneficial if I posted my selections first rather than just being an aftertiming tit! Would love to break the 3 figure mark and go from there. No point withdrawing money anyway as the initial investment was 30 squid. Thats the beauty of it! If it goes it goes, no harm done really. But the more I build it up the more I feel I have to win! Crrrazy....

Its something I've always wanted to do along with the bumpy old betfair ride which already has my blood pressure through the roof over the past 3 weeks (I will get to all that in another post). I think if you're good enough you should be able to make money regardless of your bank. I used to think you need 1.5k plus to make decent money but as the blog has gone on Im realising that 300-500 is plenty if your selections are good enough. And if you're really good (which Im not) then probably 200! Everybody has different opinions on how much you need but it also depends on your financial circumstances and other commitments as well but for now the betdaq challenge continues......

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

New Season Same Old Spanish Story

Madrid win 6-0 away and Barca win 5-0 at home.... Have we seen this before? Its just the same old story in Spain. At least in England it can be argued that its a 3 horse race but it really is just a scrap between Madrid and Barca in Spain.

Finding "value" in these matches will be tricky. Madrid were 1.31 and Barca were 1.22 and after the first week of results those odds can be considered generous. I think we will be seeing barca at 1.07ish most weeks at the Nou Camp so if you think someone can give them a game then lay away and good luck! Goals will be the most likely way to go but even those markets will be correcting themselves now! I was happy to take on the over 1.5 goals market last night and was delighted to be done with it by half time. Also had a couple of small bets on the tennis yesterday but in the first round of slams the odds tend to be gash!

The weekend was nice and relaxed on the betting front with nothing causing me huge concern. Lay l'arse at OT and sit back and watch them lose 8-2 was a pleasing way to spend a Sunday afternoon. Also stole a few quid on Chelsea and Liverpool on Saturday. Was disappointed to see that Serie A had gone on strike. Its my favourite league to bet on!

Word from the moaning Federer is that the courts are playing very slow at Flushing Meadows. This will suit Nole and Murray the most and should help Nadal as well. Its bad for Rog I think but we'll see how he progresses. As much as I hate to admit it, but if his head is right, the value is with Muzza. But I've seen Nadal pull the "play gash before the grand slam, turn up and win it" trick a few times before, particularly when its not the clay season.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011


Ok then. How was the Summer for you all? Mine was a bit mental and apart from a few bets which I mentioned on the last post I did nothing whatsoever on the gambling front. I think a bit of time off was needed. My head was just fried from last season and this was a Summer where no major football tournaments were going on so I took advantage of the rest time.

One thing I did learn (and yes I should know this already) is that patience is everything. There were so many tennis matches in particular that I watched over the Summer where waiting and waiting and waiting (you get the idea) before making your move would have paid dividends. I used to be a pre match lumper and hope for the best sort of guy when it came to the tennis but that approach is simply tragic. When you are depending on just one player to bring home the money, you just have to wait to see how things are going before taking part... This was my approach to the Murray Djoker match on Sunday and worked well so hopefully I can get involved in the US Open but it wont be the madness that it was last year..... I hope.....

Sticking to the patience theme, I didnt have a single bet on the first weekend of the premiership. Everything just looked filthy and I wanted to see how teams would start. Chelsea at Stoke, l'arse at Newcastle, Villa at Fulham, Utd at West Brom! No thanks to all of those. Its a cautious time because surely people are hoping to start the season with a bang by nailing a few big wins, its really not the time for it yet. I've been playing around with correct score and match odds for matchday 2 and its worked well. Those are my 2 main (only) strategies at the moment. I felt the 0-0 in the Utd Spurs match was way overpriced at 16.5 and was able to trade that. I did the same for the Liverpool l'arse match. Its a favorable trading market because the prices are big. You just have to hope you make the right moves. Im happy notching up 20 and 30 euro here and there and over the course of a week it can really add up. There is more value in match odds but I feel more secure in correct score. Like being caught between a wife and a mistress.... We will keep the mistress on speed dial for now!

Alot of talk on the forums about moving to Betdaq. Im still loyal to betfair for now. Lets compare the liquidity in a specific market for the two "exchange". Udinese V L'arse tonight: Betdaq €50,000 matched, Betfair €504,000 matched... Its an easy choice for now. Happy gambling!

Thursday, June 2, 2011


And we're back. Apologies for not posting anything last month but a mixture of returning back to college, plagiarising my final project, a slight pregnancy scare and pretending to work has kept me too busy to do anything on the gambling front until this week.

Always a strange feeling when the Summer hits. The amount of tennis is exciting and I've gotten back the enjoyment of watching test match cricket but in truth football is what its all about for me and thats gone for the next few months so its disappointing. Got my champions league outright winnings which was pleasing. Dear me how good are Barca? For Utd to get to 1-1 at half time was an achievement in itself. The problem is they will be terrible odds in most matches next season and in the outright markets. Anyway we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. As a Utd fan getting to 19 titles  was excellent and even getting to the Champions League final was good but never enjoyable when your team gets absolutely destroyed. All talk from David Gill is that Utd are going to have a busy Summer. We'll wait and see.....

Onto the tennis this week. Didnt do anything at all in the first week of the French Open. The schedule makes it very difficult to trade during work. Layed Troicki when he was serving for the match (seen it all before, Viktor playing well and then choking when its crunch time). And then backed Rafa against Soderling. Honestly 1.37 for Rafa in a quarter final at RG against Sodertart who has had an average season. If Rafa had lost and they were playing again tomorrow I'd still back at that price.

Alot of talk on the various blogs about backing 1.01. Green All Over, Gambler Falls and Sport is Made for Betting all giving excellent views. I must admit that I've been there before and more than once I have watched in horror as I've been taken to the cleaners by a "dead cert!". Its all about mindset. The arguement of "if you have 1000 why risk it all for a tenner" is a good one but gambling is impulsive. Do any of us really need to do it? Some perhaps. If we were rational and intelligent all the time then we would probably close our betfair accounts and call it a day. The availability of a 1.01 leads people into thinking that its a definite winner and as such they risk the large sum for measly returns imo.  Of course this has to come off 100 times before you breakeven which in itself is tougher than finding good value bets. But Im not against it. If someone thinks 1.01 is value then good luck to them and I dont take any pleasure in 1.01's getting destroyed because if you're only enjoyment from betting is watching others doing their conkers then you are a bit of a tit. Everybody has lost before so we all know what it feels like. Most people learn (probably the hard way) that its not worth the torment in the long run. Good luck everyone! Cheers.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Champions League Outright Part Three

And we're all done with the outright market and it looks very satisfactory indeed. Dont want to take any chances so decided to go even on all 4 teams even though it looks like a Utd Barca final. Apologies for the lack of updates over the past couple of weeks but I've been taking a break due to an extremely strained relationship with my other half and I have a big project to do as part of my diploma....

Hoping to get back on the horse this weekend and looking forward to hopefully having a good one! I've been reading around the various blogs and everyone seems to be doing ok at the moment so lets hope we can have a good end to the season and a great Summer! A good post on punting versus trading by denman as well. Good luck everyone! Cheers!

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Last 30 Days......

Its been one hell of a ride this past month. A mixture of aggression, luck and finally getting a phone that I can use Betfair on have all contributed to the madness. I think the staking has helped as well. Back in my college days I would have a maximum bet of around €1500 which is slightly mad and I wasnt getting the returns that would have justified risking that much. I lowered that to €1000 last Summer but again it was leading to mistakes proving too costly. Since the New Year my maximum bets are €500 and that means that I've had no option but to go out and find value which has lead to success at least for now anyway.... Long gone are the days of backing short odds or laying teams at anywhere between 15 and 50! Its a rite of passage that I think alot of gamblers go through before realising that its really not the way to go. Im not against backing at short odds or accusing those backers of being "money buyers" but its just more hassle than its worth at the end of the day.

This weekend again proved profitable. Utd were at 1.5 to beat Fulham? And no I wasnt backing it just because it was Utd at Old Trafford so they will definitely win. Fulhams away record has been dreadful. Utds home record has been sublime only dropping 2 points all season. A rejuvenated Damien Duff was out injured. Utd started with a relatively strong team: Vidic, Evra, Berba, Nani, Valencia.... 1.5 was just seemed a bit big.  Barca and l'arse also contributed nice wins.

Decided to lay Liverpool on Monday night. Mistake. Cant win all the time dont you know. City were just woeful on the night and Liverpool were impressive. It happens. The sight of seeing Tevez limp off and knowing he wont be fit for Saturdays match was comfort enough. Still cant believe Carroll is claiming the third goal. All the replays I saw showed that it was an og....

Onto last nights fun and had Utd to qualify. Was confident throughout although there were a few nervy spells. Park baning that one in seconds after the drog was delightful. You know things are going your way when something like that happens. Happy days! Havent touched the IPL and have no intention of doing so. I find the games a bit boring, the cricket amateurish at times and the markets are getting more efficient than they were when the tournament first started. Also Im busy pretending to do some work during the day anyway. Thats hard enough in itself! Can the next 30 days be as good? Unlikely but we'll see what happens. The problem with gambling is as soon as you think you've cracked it, it will bite you in the ass so no point trying to predict what will happen! Good luck everyone!

Friday, April 8, 2011

Law of Attraction??

"The law of attraction is a metaphysical New Thought belief that like attracts like, that positive and negative thinking bring about positive and negative physical results, respectively."

Anybody else buying this theory?? I've read up about it alot and watched the documentary "the secret" but its a bit too far fetched for my liking. Basically its the belief that if you wish hard enough to be rich/successful etc. that the universe will definitely reward you for your positivity! I think positive thinking is important, particularly when betting. You need to have faith in what you're backing otherwise you'll get yourself in serious bother and likely be more angry when you lose. Thats what I've found from my experiences anyway. The old PMA helps (no not PMS, PMA - Positive Mental Attitude) and it can help get through the losing times as well as the winning ones.

Enough of the psychology and more gambling talk! Im liking this run of form at the moment. Seem to be finding different value in different places whether it be another sports apart from football or different markets within football. Important to be flexible particularly at this stage of the season. Match odds are starting to become dangerous territory with some teams starting to have nothing to play for. We can now include Real Madrid La Liga matches in that category for the rest of the season.

Backed India and Sri Lanka to win their semi finals. Went bigger on the Lankans but they gave us that little bit of heart failure during that mini collapse. Thankfully Danny V settled the nerves by throwing the ball to Jesse Ryder and the game was done. You have to wonder what these captains are thinking sometimes. And staying with that theme of what players are thinking, we call on our second witness, arise Sir Misbah Ul Haq! Block block block your way to a 50 when the teams run rate is increasing over by over. Great stuff! As some betfair forumite put it "Sensible innings by Misbah, always important to see off the shine on the second new ball." Comical stuff. Was it bent? Probably not but how can a guy who hit the ball out of the park for fun in the world 20-20 a few years ago suddenly play like Boycott on a Thursday morning of a test match? Bizzare.

Football still treating me well also. Have been playing around with match odds as well as correct score but this week I also found what I felt to be value in the over 1.5 market. Last night the Villareal and Twente match was 1.37 for over 1.5??? I felt it was just too high. Usually you see that market at in the low to mid 1.2's for two attacking teams like that. Anyway, Im not complaining. I wanted to have a good mid week because last weekend was a quiet one for me anyway. A satisfactory win on the utd match was the highlight really. Life is proving quite expensive at the moment but Im trying hard not to let it impact my betting as gambling is at its most dangerous when its a necessity imo! Lets hope for more good times ahead. Good luck everyone!

Monday, March 28, 2011

All Or Nothing

Another good week particularly on the football side of things where my aggression seems to be paying off at the moment. Usually international weeks can prove to be a real pain but there can be some good value around particularly when teams are playing away from home.

England at 1.44 against a truly hopeless Wales side?? Bale out injured?? I absolutely ploughed into that. There are some international away grounds where teams go to and from a betting perspective you think, that could prove tricky so I should stay away from this match. Millennium Stadium is certainly not one of them. Wales get stuffed every time I've watched them play there so I thought England would be 1.25-1.3ish. Good to see Capello trying a new formation as well. The 4-3-3 looks like it has potential and Scott Parker getting reward for his impressive domestic form. Rooney still firing blanks though and apparently nobody reminded him that he was one yellow away from suspension. Wazza makes the England research team pay dearly by getting booked. Great stuff!

The Ireland match was a much more nervous affair. Again I thought they were overpriced but Macedonia can play and they really strutted their stuff on the night and if it hadnt been for their keeper they would have come away with all 3 points. Sometimes the luck just favours you so I'll take it! He who dares..... Shock horror that the Gibson Whelan midfield dream team didnt control the match. 2 better players on the bench in McCarthy and Fahey. These Italian managers can be a stubborn bunch.

The cricket unfortunately proved my downfall this week. I bet differently on all 3 matches. On the Pakistan Windies match I went all green at halfway to leave me +48 on both teams. On the India Aus match I backed India at the half way point for €150. Thought they were a bit too high at 1.7ish considering they have Raina coming in at 7. That shows the strength in their batting when you can have someone of that calibre coming in at 7! On the third quarter final I lumped on the Saffers pre match as I was confident they would get the job done! Mistaaaake! AB and Shark Kallis going along nicely and then absolute chaos. Was able to save about 20% of my money (which is good for me because its something I havent been doing in the past) but it was an annoying defeat considering the position they were in. I actually expressed my concerns on the betfair forum by saying that Du Plessis at 6 and Botha at 7 meant that the top 5 would have to see them home. Its a shame I didnt trade like that! Oh well. It happens!

I finished off the week with a spot of tennis trading. Backed Ferrer and traded out when he went a set up to leave me +50 on the Spaniard and +38 on the Indian tart. Im trying to get back into trading mode. Alot of blogs have been covering gambling versus trading and the debate about which is better. I still havent been able to make up my mind. I have alot of thoughts on both but I'll leave that to a seperate blog post. Cheers!

Monday, March 21, 2011

Recession Aggression!

I was feeling a bit pissed off with the world and life in general at the start of last week. Earthquakes, tsunamis, Gaddafi, Recessions and having to mind my girlfriends kid! That little bastard is a terror. No wonder Disco Stu said "Kids? Back Away. Not Today. Disco Lady!"

Anyway, with all this in mind I decided that the only way to fly was to attempt a kamikaze approach to my betting. Im not saying that this is always the way to go but sometimes weeks just present themselves where there seems to be alot of value around and this felt like one of them. We're getting to a glorious stage of the season where teams are desperate for wins to keep alive title challenges/European places etc. so its always a good time to be a bit of a nutter imo.

It started with backing the Saffers to batter Ireland (at awful odds but I needed to get things going) and then €100 on Hurricane Fly to place. I know nothing about horse racing but I said to myself that if this came off that I could take it as a sign that it could be my time. Always a tricky situation trying to watch a horse race at work but I handled it nicely!

I thought there was alot of value around in the football. Its just my opinion. Usually my strategy is to lay teams or to hit correct score but I really went for the wins this week. There was alot of luck involved if Im being honest. 4 or 5 of the matches were narrow 1 goal victories but thats not my concern. The teams won and thats all that matters. I was really liking Madrid at 1.35 against Lyon considering CR7 was fit again and Chelsea at 1.68 against Mancinis bus parkers. Utd at 1.54 and 1.44 against Marseille and Bolton were big gambles but they came off so we'll take that!  There was a glorious inevitability to that late Berbatov winner  but I still needed a change of trousers after such was my delight! Inter Milan also enjoyed contributing to my high blood pressure this week with a narrow victory over Lecce who were actually decent on the day. Finished off the weekend sneaking a few quid on the Porto match. They're up there with Barca on the reliability scale.

Think I might just go back to laying teams in the coming weeks. The wins arent as big but its a safer strategy and should still prove profitable if the right selections are made. The week was very satisfying but in all honesty I should have lost somewhere along the way. A €47 loss was the only damage done in the Spurs game. My heart couldnt take that every week. It was a bit sloppy and was chancerism at its finest but it turned out to be a good week so lets hope for more of the same.

Happy to have left all my green on Barca for the CL. They will destroy Shakhtar and then its either Tottenham or Madrid in the semis. We may have to be splitting our green at that stage but we'll just wait and see for now. Im just happy they're side of the draw doesn't contain Chelsea. For some reason, Chelsea are just a bad match up for Barcelona. Good luck everyone!


Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Champions League Outright Part Two

Had my fun with this little venture but not really in the mood to wait any longer. Cant see anybody else but Barca winning the Champions League but the plan was for them to get past l'arse and then lay off and thats what I've done. Still a handy win if Barca go all the way so I'll keep all the green on them. Outright markets are certainly something I'll look into more in the future though. A nice backup to have rather than relying on the 90 mins of chaos time after time!

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Ashes Crashes!

Unbelievable scenes. Had no investment on the match but thats the most excited I've been over sport in a long long time. Tears in the eyes by the end of it tbh. So many reasons why it was such a great victory. Kevin O Brien  the match hero, puts to bed all the shite that we need aussies/saffers to make up our cricket team (no that would be you England). Fastest WC century. Highest chase in World Cup history. It was against the English....!!! Jimmy giving KOB lip as well during his innings. There will only be one winner there and its not the Lancashire tit.

The media has really latched onto it over here. On every radio station and front pages of all the newspapers. Really is tremendous. Just cant believe how well they held their nerve when they got close. O Brien, Cusack and Mooney were just so cool throughout and then TJ hitting his first ball for 4 off the petulant Broad. Was no chance for them after that. Deary me, English were just awful throughout that innings apart from Swann. Got exactly what they deserved. They have such a poor attitude when they play associate sides. Got away with it against the Dutch but not this time. If this had been Pakistan then there would have been outrage at all the poor bowling, misfields etc and no doubt an ICC investigation!!

Biggest ever gubbing on betfair?? Has to be close. I cant think of anything like it. I remember a few million being done on Barca a few years back when they were 3-1 up against Villareal with 10 mins to go. And there was a Henin tennis match where she was 5-1 up against someone in the final set and lost but I think this is the biggest I've seen.

Low odds backers foiled again. There always seems to be alot of joy when the so called "money buyers" get hurt. Personally I've never taken too much joy in their demise. Im more worried about myself tbh. In my opinion everyone has backed ridiculously low odds at some point hoping for an easy few quid. I know I've certainly been there. The biggest problem with it is there really is nowhere to turn if things start to go against you. The odds get higher and you're either having to make the decision of trading out for a loss or hanging on and hoping that you're saved. Its just more hassle than its worth imo but everyone has their own thoughts. I'm sure some people have done alright backing the right selections at really low odds but it only takes one freak result/mistake/injury and the hard work is undone. But if you think sub 1.05 represents value..... Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Another pain in l'arse!!

Ouch! 400 that little defensive mix up set me back. Would have been a cracking week otherwise but what can you do! Sometimes games come along where the keeper has a blinder and 2 clowns combine at the exact same moment to utterly do your nuts. Thats the game! Its why we love it and hate it in equal measure. Anything can happen. No complaints and we will carry on. Still in profit so lets keep going.

Had to put in alot of hard work over the past couple of weeks as things just seem to be getting a little bit tough. Italy still very hit and miss for finding wins but Fiorentina and Udinese are putting in good displays and are always decent prices. Alexis Sanchez scoring 4 last Sunday!! That will raise his price tag further. Apparently he wants to play for Utd.... Looks quality every time I've seen him. 35-40 million is the reported price. Not really the Utd price range of the last couple of seasons.... Any more homeless dudes for around the 7 million mark Carlos Queiroz??

Poor old Real Madrid backers on Sunday night. Not the fact that Ade and CR7 both hit the post but Karims miss hurt them big time! For anyone who didnt see it, 5 mins to go, ball squared to Karim, a few yards out and gets his legs in a tangle. Oh dear. Give me Chicharito any day over that French tart.

Lost a bit of money on the tennis in the Djoker Lopez match. Just lost my nerve and traded out. The right thing to do when you're having doubts but a pain when the guy you backed goes on to win any way. Just have to keep telling yourself it was the right thing to do which it was.......

Also been messing around with the cricket. The Bangladesh Irish market was just insane. It was more entertaining watching the market than the match but I was gutted for Ireland. At one stage when it was tight, the market moved 50 ticks for 4 leg byes. Crazy. I was worried that we wouldnt be able to chase anything over 180 against the spin attack and unfortunately was right. Also Andrew White at 5??? Said on the betfair forum he was 3 places too high before a ball was bowled to him and thats how it turned out. Looked all over the place. KOB a much better number 5. We'll give England an alright game tomorrow and Dockrell will enjoy playing against his future employers....

Following on from the last post, the outright CL market surprised me. Barca reached as low as 2.4 in the outright when they were 1-0 up against l'arse. No way I thought it would go that low and at the time was feeling pretty smug. That quickly changed! Barca are around 3.35ish now but Im going nowhere. I'll stick with them and hope they get past l'arse before doing anything. If they dont then the money is gone and life will go on. Certainly the outright market is something I'll be looking more at in the various competitions next season. Good luck everyone! Cheers.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Champions League Outright

Had a few quid on Barca at 3 at the weekend. I felt it was important to get the money in around weekend time as once the buildup began to the midweek matches began I thought I wouldn't get that price. Hopefully it will be even shorter after tonight!!!

Realistically I cant see anyone taking them out over 2 legs. Im not going with all the media hype surrounding the Barca team, its just my own opinion based on watching all their matches this season and the standard of opposition left in the draw. Second favourites Real were owned by Barca and have been very unimpressive all season really. An unbelievable dependence on CR7 to win them matches. Chelsea 3rd favourites is a bit ridiculous considering their freefall over the last few months. As a Utd fan I think 10 is an alright price but the team still hasnt performed to a high level this season although number 19 is well on the way. Against Barca I would be cacking it!

Nothing else to speak of really. Spurs playing well but Milan were just awful last night. Inter have lost the solidity of last season as another Benitez project ends in disaster. Leonardo hasnt fared that well in management although he is a great looking individual! Bayern to possibly go far again as Robben and Ribery are now fit and the league is already finished for them (13 points behind the leaders) so possibly something to look at there... Anyway everyone will have different opinions on these things. Thats the beauty of it! Good luck everyone! Cheers!

Thursday, February 3, 2011

January Roundup and February 50's

Somehow managed to finish January in profit. It was just such a chaotic month. I went from being down 500-600 euro on 3 separate occasions throughout the month and somehow fighting back thanks to a huge amount of luck. I had late penalties, missed penalties, own goals, mistakes, screamers and comebacks all go my way. Not sure my heart could take anymore of the January madness.

I've been thinking alot about January and why it proves to be a difficult month for punters. Maybe its the desperation to start the new year so well. Maybe trying to win some money after an expensive Christmas. Or maybe there is just too much to choose from. On paper it should be a good month. Halfway through the football leagues across Europe so lots of form to rely on. Tennis traders get 2 weeks of the Oz open. Cricket traders get truckloads of action in January. NFL. Horse Racing. Golf, Too much going on?? You could argue that for lots of months though. Or maybe its just a jinxed month and it will always be one of those things..... Personally I think its a psychological thing and gamblers are expecting the shit to hit the fan at some stage in the month. I know thats how I was certainly feeling.

Anyway, February started off far more relaxed. Was really enjoying some of the odds that were going around. Utd at 1.37ish against Villa and Liverpool were way overpriced last night. Stoke on the road are just..... Also got involved in the Barca match. It was dangerous as they were already through and lost the second leg against Betis a couple of weeks back but this had a different feel to it. Pep is one of those managers that always wants the team to be winning even if its a meaningless second leg tie against a crap side. He talked about how disappointed he was with losing to Betis the last time so I was confident. 1.4ish was fine by me.

All 4 bets in February have won me 50 so Im starting to think I mush have a fetish for that particular number. Ah sure its a nice round figure isnt it?? Keep the 50's stacking up and I wont be complaining. "If we wait for the moment when everything, absolutely everything is ready, we shall never begin." I dont know where that came from but its todays quote on my calendar. Good luck everyone! Cheers!

Monday, January 24, 2011

Some weekends.....

Sometimes you have a few days in this game where things just go right. You just have to enjoy it when it happens because they dont come along often. Dont think the weekend could have gone much better really. United and Barcelona scoring in the first 2 minutes of their matches, own goals went my way in the Blackburn and AC Milan matches, Besiktas thump Bucaspor on Friday, Real scrape a lucky victory and the one bet I did lose was when I lowered my stakes. It was just one of those weekends and it has put me back in profit for January which never looked likely on several occasions this month.

I was really just going with form. Utd have dropped 2 points at home all season so I was happy with 1.23. Madrid have dropped no points at home this season so again I was happy to take 1.2ish even though it was a struggle for them. Barca at 1.07 were a bit short but they've only dropped 4 points at home all season and they last dropped points in October. The correct score on the Blackburn match was a bit of a punt as was Besiktas on Friday but they've made some impressive signing in the transfer window and could potentially prove to be a very profitable team to get behind for the rest of the season. Disappointing to lose out on the Inter match particularly after they had taken the lead but Udinese are a quality side. Di Natale and Sanchez always looked threatening and they could have won by more than the 2 goals. Thankfully I only bet small on that one. Things just went that way for me.

Not really sure about the Bolton Chelsea match tonight. Its very very tricky. Chelsea usually do very well at the Reebok but Bolton have been solid this season and Chelsea are most certainly not. Do I dare ruin the good work by getting involved or is the luck going my way at the moment?? Knowing me I'll probably get involved! Good luck everyone! Cheers!

Friday, January 21, 2011

January Struggles

Been a tough month so far but Im on somewhat of a recovery at the moment. Its tough to know where to begin. I've been up and down so many times I'm actually quite relieved to not have lost more. The lowest I was down was over 500ish but Im back to about half that now. The matches that have cost me so far this month are Spurs v Utd, l'arse ipswich and wolves chelsea. Just making the wrong choices at the wrong times. Also lost a few quid on an Atletico match in the correct score market. Not felt too clever on several occasions this month. I also forgot about the few quid I lost on the darts until uploading the screen shot. 

On a positive note, my last few bets this week have netted me around 240 without having to do too much and if betfair didnt go down yesterday it would have been more! Bloody ridiculous Betfair. Words cant even describe them at times. "Planned Maintenance" when really the site has done its conkers. Cheeky gits I also went each way on kauto star last saturday. Thanks for hanging on McCoy when Kauto decided to plough through the last instead of jumping it! Cant believe they want to race him at Cheltenham but anyway we'll see what happens. I thought Binocular looked amazing but I'm not that big into the horses. It all happens too quickly for my liking. And the moaning that takes place on the betfair forum when a horse doesnt win. Jesus its laughable. So many threads stating Kauto would have won if it was Ruby and its all McCoys fault??!!!  Great stuff. Could have sworn I saw Ruby on his ass at Cheltenham thanks to Kauto.....

I have a feeling that the coming weekend is going to be a big one. I dont know why. Its got that make or break feel to it. Could still end the month in profit or else do more damage. After a great December Im still feeling in pretty good shape although work is getting tough and Im having to spend alot of time with the other half. Its all about balance! Hopefully everyone else is getting on well. Good luck! Cheers!

Monday, January 3, 2011

New Year

Up and down start to the New Year. Was sitting on €100 profit from football on New Years Day and lost it all on the darts so as we've learnt in the past week this darts lark just ain't for me! Well at least we know that now! I love watching it but when it comes to betting on it I just seem to make the wrong calls....

So just left it to the football yesterday and upped my stakes a little because well I just felt like it! Barca didn't exactly make for easy viewing yesterday but I won and thats the main thing. They're really not the same without Messi are they?? Even when Xavi, Iniesta, Pedro and Villa play, they're still not the same without the Argentine wizard. The Chelsea match also put me through the motions because I was betting on it and because I really didn't want to see them win. You have to really love this game sometimes though. The prat JT thinks he's won them the match and then the Chelsea defenders decide to have a game of musical statues to celebrate their 3 points, the only problem is the bloody game wasn't over.... Honestly, how much time did Clarke have to nod in the equaliser?? The lad could have whipped out his pipe, slippers and swirled a brandy and the Chelsea defenders still wouldn't have reacted in time. Glorious. Having trouble uploading the screen shot but one is coming!

More football on again tonight so hopefully we can find a winner two to keep us moving along. Im up about 700ish for my last 30 days which im happy with considering i missed some weekends betting because I was away and I was playing with lower stakes. Im also considering entering the online poker world to see if it can be any way profitable. Any thoughts or tips would be most welcome. Good luck everyone. Cheers!