Thursday, November 3, 2011

Happy November!

Howdy doody to everyone out there! Its been a tough few weeks hence the lack of blogging. Unfortunately I had to fork out on major repairs on my car so had to withdraw the €700 I had built up in the challenge. Also I've started travelling from Galway to Dublin for work on the bus every single day as I havent been able to find a new place to live since leaving the ex! And that thing called work gets in the way of all the fun of everything but I've just been told I got a 20% pay increase so happy days! All that effort has finally paid off....

Last weekend was a perfect time to start betting again. Just got paid, the break did me good and I thought I would be in a good frame of mind and had no distractions whatsoever! So it was quite a comedown when the second bet of the weekend did my bloody nuts in! Im usually not a bet on a match when its nearly over type of guy. Nearly all my match odds bets are placed pre match and the odd one at half time. I think sometimes betting in play can be affected by the adrenaline of it all and the "oh well they definitely wont lose now" bullshit thoughts that enter your head. Whereas pre match Im far more relaxed and thoughts are more clear. Note to self: If I want an adrenaline rush, jump out of a plane... It was slightly unlucky though. I mean literally 30 seconds after my bet was placed, JT fell on his arse and RVP was through. Im not one to usually stand up for JT and I think the guy is scum but the backpass was awful by Malouda. Even if JT didnt fall (or dive and pretend he slipped as a few conspiracy theorists stated after the match) RVP was getting there anyway imo!

So a slight rescue mission was required. There is literally nothing more annoying then when you take a break, come back and then lose straight away. So I had to work really hard over Saturday and Sunday to make it up and thankfully I did. Barca -1, City to win, correct score trades in Spain and Italy and of course Spurs to beat QPR. Really enjoyed that one. Alot of clever folks saying Spurs were too short on the BF forum... There isnt a more balanced midfield in the PL at the moment than Bale, Parker, Modric and Lennon. Reminds me of the Giggs, Keane, Scholes and Beckham midfield of 99. The enforcer, creator and the width. Its such a simple game when you can put together a 4 man midfield like that! And Spurs can beat anyone at the Lane when they're in that kind of form.

Been playing it nice and simple with the Champions League as well. Not sure I will have a bet on the last 2 match days. Most teams really have nothing to play for but knowing me I will probably be tempted by something. I also had my first X Factor bet on Sunday. Now usually I wouldnt but Sophie to go was basically free money imo (and I hate that phrase!). Louis was definitely going to boot her out as the night before he said she was like a secretary who sang at weekends, not that theres anything wrong with that! And Kelly was always gonna save her precious Misha B so I just needed one of the other judges to give her the boot and Tulissa did and Barlow said he was going to do the same. Boom! 17 majestic euro thanks to a lack of a social life at weekends. LIVING. THE. DREAM.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

I dont like cricket....

Everything going well in the €100 challenge all things considered. Only one thing has tripped me up and that is my disastrous flutters on T20 cricket... Its impossible to describe the relationship I have with cricket and T20 in particular. Its like walking into a restaurant and seeing a very expensive piece of cake. The cake looks nice to eat but I know that deep down I wont enjoy eating it, it will give me diarrhoea and I will probably end up going to the doctor and forking out on medical bills so best off to just have a sausage roll instead but I still cant help but taste a bit of the cake because everyone else seems to be enjoying eating it! I've had 29 bets since starting the challenge. 27 were winners. 2 were losers. Both losers were the 2 cricket bets I've had. The screen shot represents the full challenge to date!

In fairness to me, a number 10 hitting the last ball for 6 is slightly unfortunate and the Windies cocked things up yesterday as well but T20 is just not for me. I never feel like I have any control at all whereas with football or tennis I feel like I have a better chance of knowing what the market is going to do. I could see why people do so well from it though. The market was moving every single ball during yesterdays match and there always seems to be an over reaction after a wicket falls which is playing into traders hands surely?? Windies were sub 1.2 when ashraful went but Rahim was the key man anyway. If the market is surprised that Ashraful gives his wicket away then it really hasnt seen Ashraful play at all has it?? Not that Im much better because I lost as well but I learnt quite a bit just sitting at work watching the market move. Interesting stuff.

If Im allowed to complain about bad luck in the cricket then surely I have to acknowledge good luck as well. I layed Armenia last night for a liablity of around 580! Their keeper gets wrongly sent off, they score a tragic own goal, their new keeper makes a silly mistake and Ireland still were outplayed for most of the match! If it stays 11 v 11 Armenia win that match without a doubt imo. By far the classier outfit while Ireland as much as I hate to say it are bloody cack. Only looked slightly better when Walters, Fahey and Hunt came on but still it wasnt exactly like watching Barcelona was it?? Oh well. I'll take my win and thats that!

Been following my gut in the tennis and its paying off nicely. Made a handy few quid on Murray last week. He looked sensational to be honest. Im not a Murray fan whatsoever and when it comes to grand slams he is the fourth best player in the world but when he's in that kind of form in 3 set matches he can beat the lot and you just need to get as much as you can on him because when he's hot he's shit hot. Anderson (who is always worth a back) and Ferrer also got me nice wins and Im really enjoying watching an in form Ferrero! Love that guy... Alot of value on Berdych these days as well now that he finally seems to remember how well he can actually play.

Off to London next week for my first work trip to talk about the company at an event... Nervous times. 1.2 that some banker asshole will ask me a question about data management that I wont be able to answer and I end up running out of the building...

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Better Days

After alot of thinking following my previous post I decided that its easier just not being an idiot and sticking to a relatively successful strategy instead of trying to be a hero and go for the kamikaze approach. As said in the last post I decided to take a step back from the usual amounts that I bet and instead just start with €100 and go from there. Well it was actually 105 I think!

The results were extremely encouraging for a number of reasons: I had to somehow find more value than I usually would because of the lower amount I was playing around with; I had to be disciplined as some of the matches turned out to be slightly unpredictable; and most importantly the amount that I won in the last 7 days is a profit that I would be delighted with when using a bank of 300-500 instead of 100. As mentioned in one of my previous posts though, if you think you are half decent at this gambling lark then you should be able to make a good profit without needing a big bank! Mistakes will inevitably come at some stage as they always seem to do but I've definitely progressed in the last few weeks compared to the naivety I was showing at the start of the season.

Cant really say that everything went totally to plan. Anzhi last minute equaliser (after they conceded on 88 mins) was slightly fortunate and also Utd were holding on big time against Stoke after that Crouch goal. Utd and Madrid were almost the exact same odds on Tuesday night at around 1.22ish which was a bit mad. Utd having a slight injury crisis and Basle are very underrated. Although at 2-0 at half time who would have complained??? Compare this to Madrid who practically had a full squad to choose from bar 2 injuries against an Ajax side that has been cack athis season and who lost to this Madrid side twice last season home and away.

Was happyish to take the 1.18 on Barca yesterday morning? Was this value? Well yes to me it was. Barca needing to get a win on the board after the Milan debacle. Pep said he was going to pick a strong side and also BATE are SPL standard which usually helps when backing a team at crap odds. Think Barca were around 1.14/1.15 by kick off anyway... Was tempted to go Barca -1 but the only concern was that Peps away record in Europe is one of the only blots in an otherwise exemplary managerial copybook. They rarely win away as comfortably in Europe as you'd assume... That doesnt really matter though when they could probably beat a combined 11 featuring Jesus, Moses, The Incredible Hulk and Chuck Norris 4-0 at the Camp Nou (unless of course AC Milan come to town, feckers). Good luck everyone!

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Just Not Good Enough

Ok, dont get me wrong here and there are times in the last few years where I would have given my left nut to see any sort of profit come out of 30 days of graft but this time its just not good enough. 2 weeks ago I was up nearly a grand and then just completely went awol after a smallish loss on the Roma match. Lost discipline? Dirty chase? Clueless mug? Yes probably all 3!

I just dont understand myself sometimes... When everything is going so well, the strategies are paying off, trading provides profit and then I just start lumping on for no reason??? Its the gamblers graveyard when you behave like that. Im not going to say its down to hard luck because its not. Teams arent going to win every week... Mugs like AC Milan are allowed to score last minute equalisers, even at the Nou Camp! 40 mins to trade out for a nice profit was plenty. It was just a lack of self control and greed. Losses will come, thats inevitable. Its the traders job to minimise the loss to the best of their ability and then proceed with caution next time, not act the lunatic because you're pissed off with yourself.

We've been here before but after nearly 4 years I was hoping bad habits would have all been erased by now. The old "I lost but Im having fun" just doesnt do it any more and losing is never fun anyway. Taking a sort of break from things this weekend but will still play around with a couple of things, just not as heavy.

I've also realised how much your personal life can affect your decision making process and if you dont have a clear head you'll have an empty bank! So I've left the girlfriend of the last 11 months to focus more on my job firstly and also to make a better shot at trading. It wasnt just for those 2 reasons. There were a million reasons why leaving was the right choice and I do feel relieved that the whole episode is over.

As for the betdaq challenge, I reached 100ish before going back down to 29 and getting it up to 40 and I've withdrawn it now. Betdaq is rather poor. Liquidity is gash, functionality inefficient and I just didnt enjoy the experiment. Made a solid tenner though... We can celebrate that tonight. To Arthur!!!

As a separate "challenge" to my usual trading I'll be doing a €100-??? sort of thing just to see where it takes me. Good luck everyone and lets keep our heads screwed on tightly for a change! Cheers!

Monday, September 12, 2011

Betdaq €30 Challenge

Decided to sign up for Betdaq a few weeks ago as they were giving me a free €30 bet. Actually you have to lodge €30 and if you lose that bet they refund you apparently.... Who knows whether they actually do or not. 11 bets later and Im up to €83. Its weird, at times Im just so loose with my betfair bank but with the betdaq Im scrapping for my life and protecting it more than I've ever protected my betfair cash. I suppose there is a bit of satisfaction building up a small bank and once you set yourself a challenge you will do whatever it takes to succeed with it.

I've been posting my results on twitter just to keep my tweets sort of interesting but I think it would be more beneficial if I posted my selections first rather than just being an aftertiming tit! Would love to break the 3 figure mark and go from there. No point withdrawing money anyway as the initial investment was 30 squid. Thats the beauty of it! If it goes it goes, no harm done really. But the more I build it up the more I feel I have to win! Crrrazy....

Its something I've always wanted to do along with the bumpy old betfair ride which already has my blood pressure through the roof over the past 3 weeks (I will get to all that in another post). I think if you're good enough you should be able to make money regardless of your bank. I used to think you need 1.5k plus to make decent money but as the blog has gone on Im realising that 300-500 is plenty if your selections are good enough. And if you're really good (which Im not) then probably 200! Everybody has different opinions on how much you need but it also depends on your financial circumstances and other commitments as well but for now the betdaq challenge continues......

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

New Season Same Old Spanish Story

Madrid win 6-0 away and Barca win 5-0 at home.... Have we seen this before? Its just the same old story in Spain. At least in England it can be argued that its a 3 horse race but it really is just a scrap between Madrid and Barca in Spain.

Finding "value" in these matches will be tricky. Madrid were 1.31 and Barca were 1.22 and after the first week of results those odds can be considered generous. I think we will be seeing barca at 1.07ish most weeks at the Nou Camp so if you think someone can give them a game then lay away and good luck! Goals will be the most likely way to go but even those markets will be correcting themselves now! I was happy to take on the over 1.5 goals market last night and was delighted to be done with it by half time. Also had a couple of small bets on the tennis yesterday but in the first round of slams the odds tend to be gash!

The weekend was nice and relaxed on the betting front with nothing causing me huge concern. Lay l'arse at OT and sit back and watch them lose 8-2 was a pleasing way to spend a Sunday afternoon. Also stole a few quid on Chelsea and Liverpool on Saturday. Was disappointed to see that Serie A had gone on strike. Its my favourite league to bet on!

Word from the moaning Federer is that the courts are playing very slow at Flushing Meadows. This will suit Nole and Murray the most and should help Nadal as well. Its bad for Rog I think but we'll see how he progresses. As much as I hate to admit it, but if his head is right, the value is with Muzza. But I've seen Nadal pull the "play gash before the grand slam, turn up and win it" trick a few times before, particularly when its not the clay season.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011


Ok then. How was the Summer for you all? Mine was a bit mental and apart from a few bets which I mentioned on the last post I did nothing whatsoever on the gambling front. I think a bit of time off was needed. My head was just fried from last season and this was a Summer where no major football tournaments were going on so I took advantage of the rest time.

One thing I did learn (and yes I should know this already) is that patience is everything. There were so many tennis matches in particular that I watched over the Summer where waiting and waiting and waiting (you get the idea) before making your move would have paid dividends. I used to be a pre match lumper and hope for the best sort of guy when it came to the tennis but that approach is simply tragic. When you are depending on just one player to bring home the money, you just have to wait to see how things are going before taking part... This was my approach to the Murray Djoker match on Sunday and worked well so hopefully I can get involved in the US Open but it wont be the madness that it was last year..... I hope.....

Sticking to the patience theme, I didnt have a single bet on the first weekend of the premiership. Everything just looked filthy and I wanted to see how teams would start. Chelsea at Stoke, l'arse at Newcastle, Villa at Fulham, Utd at West Brom! No thanks to all of those. Its a cautious time because surely people are hoping to start the season with a bang by nailing a few big wins, its really not the time for it yet. I've been playing around with correct score and match odds for matchday 2 and its worked well. Those are my 2 main (only) strategies at the moment. I felt the 0-0 in the Utd Spurs match was way overpriced at 16.5 and was able to trade that. I did the same for the Liverpool l'arse match. Its a favorable trading market because the prices are big. You just have to hope you make the right moves. Im happy notching up 20 and 30 euro here and there and over the course of a week it can really add up. There is more value in match odds but I feel more secure in correct score. Like being caught between a wife and a mistress.... We will keep the mistress on speed dial for now!

Alot of talk on the forums about moving to Betdaq. Im still loyal to betfair for now. Lets compare the liquidity in a specific market for the two "exchange". Udinese V L'arse tonight: Betdaq €50,000 matched, Betfair €504,000 matched... Its an easy choice for now. Happy gambling!