Thursday, September 29, 2011

Better Days

After alot of thinking following my previous post I decided that its easier just not being an idiot and sticking to a relatively successful strategy instead of trying to be a hero and go for the kamikaze approach. As said in the last post I decided to take a step back from the usual amounts that I bet and instead just start with €100 and go from there. Well it was actually 105 I think!

The results were extremely encouraging for a number of reasons: I had to somehow find more value than I usually would because of the lower amount I was playing around with; I had to be disciplined as some of the matches turned out to be slightly unpredictable; and most importantly the amount that I won in the last 7 days is a profit that I would be delighted with when using a bank of 300-500 instead of 100. As mentioned in one of my previous posts though, if you think you are half decent at this gambling lark then you should be able to make a good profit without needing a big bank! Mistakes will inevitably come at some stage as they always seem to do but I've definitely progressed in the last few weeks compared to the naivety I was showing at the start of the season.

Cant really say that everything went totally to plan. Anzhi last minute equaliser (after they conceded on 88 mins) was slightly fortunate and also Utd were holding on big time against Stoke after that Crouch goal. Utd and Madrid were almost the exact same odds on Tuesday night at around 1.22ish which was a bit mad. Utd having a slight injury crisis and Basle are very underrated. Although at 2-0 at half time who would have complained??? Compare this to Madrid who practically had a full squad to choose from bar 2 injuries against an Ajax side that has been cack athis season and who lost to this Madrid side twice last season home and away.

Was happyish to take the 1.18 on Barca yesterday morning? Was this value? Well yes to me it was. Barca needing to get a win on the board after the Milan debacle. Pep said he was going to pick a strong side and also BATE are SPL standard which usually helps when backing a team at crap odds. Think Barca were around 1.14/1.15 by kick off anyway... Was tempted to go Barca -1 but the only concern was that Peps away record in Europe is one of the only blots in an otherwise exemplary managerial copybook. They rarely win away as comfortably in Europe as you'd assume... That doesnt really matter though when they could probably beat a combined 11 featuring Jesus, Moses, The Incredible Hulk and Chuck Norris 4-0 at the Camp Nou (unless of course AC Milan come to town, feckers). Good luck everyone!

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Just Not Good Enough

Ok, dont get me wrong here and there are times in the last few years where I would have given my left nut to see any sort of profit come out of 30 days of graft but this time its just not good enough. 2 weeks ago I was up nearly a grand and then just completely went awol after a smallish loss on the Roma match. Lost discipline? Dirty chase? Clueless mug? Yes probably all 3!

I just dont understand myself sometimes... When everything is going so well, the strategies are paying off, trading provides profit and then I just start lumping on for no reason??? Its the gamblers graveyard when you behave like that. Im not going to say its down to hard luck because its not. Teams arent going to win every week... Mugs like AC Milan are allowed to score last minute equalisers, even at the Nou Camp! 40 mins to trade out for a nice profit was plenty. It was just a lack of self control and greed. Losses will come, thats inevitable. Its the traders job to minimise the loss to the best of their ability and then proceed with caution next time, not act the lunatic because you're pissed off with yourself.

We've been here before but after nearly 4 years I was hoping bad habits would have all been erased by now. The old "I lost but Im having fun" just doesnt do it any more and losing is never fun anyway. Taking a sort of break from things this weekend but will still play around with a couple of things, just not as heavy.

I've also realised how much your personal life can affect your decision making process and if you dont have a clear head you'll have an empty bank! So I've left the girlfriend of the last 11 months to focus more on my job firstly and also to make a better shot at trading. It wasnt just for those 2 reasons. There were a million reasons why leaving was the right choice and I do feel relieved that the whole episode is over.

As for the betdaq challenge, I reached 100ish before going back down to 29 and getting it up to 40 and I've withdrawn it now. Betdaq is rather poor. Liquidity is gash, functionality inefficient and I just didnt enjoy the experiment. Made a solid tenner though... We can celebrate that tonight. To Arthur!!!

As a separate "challenge" to my usual trading I'll be doing a €100-??? sort of thing just to see where it takes me. Good luck everyone and lets keep our heads screwed on tightly for a change! Cheers!

Monday, September 12, 2011

Betdaq €30 Challenge

Decided to sign up for Betdaq a few weeks ago as they were giving me a free €30 bet. Actually you have to lodge €30 and if you lose that bet they refund you apparently.... Who knows whether they actually do or not. 11 bets later and Im up to €83. Its weird, at times Im just so loose with my betfair bank but with the betdaq Im scrapping for my life and protecting it more than I've ever protected my betfair cash. I suppose there is a bit of satisfaction building up a small bank and once you set yourself a challenge you will do whatever it takes to succeed with it.

I've been posting my results on twitter just to keep my tweets sort of interesting but I think it would be more beneficial if I posted my selections first rather than just being an aftertiming tit! Would love to break the 3 figure mark and go from there. No point withdrawing money anyway as the initial investment was 30 squid. Thats the beauty of it! If it goes it goes, no harm done really. But the more I build it up the more I feel I have to win! Crrrazy....

Its something I've always wanted to do along with the bumpy old betfair ride which already has my blood pressure through the roof over the past 3 weeks (I will get to all that in another post). I think if you're good enough you should be able to make money regardless of your bank. I used to think you need 1.5k plus to make decent money but as the blog has gone on Im realising that 300-500 is plenty if your selections are good enough. And if you're really good (which Im not) then probably 200! Everybody has different opinions on how much you need but it also depends on your financial circumstances and other commitments as well but for now the betdaq challenge continues......