Monday, March 28, 2011

All Or Nothing

Another good week particularly on the football side of things where my aggression seems to be paying off at the moment. Usually international weeks can prove to be a real pain but there can be some good value around particularly when teams are playing away from home.

England at 1.44 against a truly hopeless Wales side?? Bale out injured?? I absolutely ploughed into that. There are some international away grounds where teams go to and from a betting perspective you think, that could prove tricky so I should stay away from this match. Millennium Stadium is certainly not one of them. Wales get stuffed every time I've watched them play there so I thought England would be 1.25-1.3ish. Good to see Capello trying a new formation as well. The 4-3-3 looks like it has potential and Scott Parker getting reward for his impressive domestic form. Rooney still firing blanks though and apparently nobody reminded him that he was one yellow away from suspension. Wazza makes the England research team pay dearly by getting booked. Great stuff!

The Ireland match was a much more nervous affair. Again I thought they were overpriced but Macedonia can play and they really strutted their stuff on the night and if it hadnt been for their keeper they would have come away with all 3 points. Sometimes the luck just favours you so I'll take it! He who dares..... Shock horror that the Gibson Whelan midfield dream team didnt control the match. 2 better players on the bench in McCarthy and Fahey. These Italian managers can be a stubborn bunch.

The cricket unfortunately proved my downfall this week. I bet differently on all 3 matches. On the Pakistan Windies match I went all green at halfway to leave me +48 on both teams. On the India Aus match I backed India at the half way point for €150. Thought they were a bit too high at 1.7ish considering they have Raina coming in at 7. That shows the strength in their batting when you can have someone of that calibre coming in at 7! On the third quarter final I lumped on the Saffers pre match as I was confident they would get the job done! Mistaaaake! AB and Shark Kallis going along nicely and then absolute chaos. Was able to save about 20% of my money (which is good for me because its something I havent been doing in the past) but it was an annoying defeat considering the position they were in. I actually expressed my concerns on the betfair forum by saying that Du Plessis at 6 and Botha at 7 meant that the top 5 would have to see them home. Its a shame I didnt trade like that! Oh well. It happens!

I finished off the week with a spot of tennis trading. Backed Ferrer and traded out when he went a set up to leave me +50 on the Spaniard and +38 on the Indian tart. Im trying to get back into trading mode. Alot of blogs have been covering gambling versus trading and the debate about which is better. I still havent been able to make up my mind. I have alot of thoughts on both but I'll leave that to a seperate blog post. Cheers!

Monday, March 21, 2011

Recession Aggression!

I was feeling a bit pissed off with the world and life in general at the start of last week. Earthquakes, tsunamis, Gaddafi, Recessions and having to mind my girlfriends kid! That little bastard is a terror. No wonder Disco Stu said "Kids? Back Away. Not Today. Disco Lady!"

Anyway, with all this in mind I decided that the only way to fly was to attempt a kamikaze approach to my betting. Im not saying that this is always the way to go but sometimes weeks just present themselves where there seems to be alot of value around and this felt like one of them. We're getting to a glorious stage of the season where teams are desperate for wins to keep alive title challenges/European places etc. so its always a good time to be a bit of a nutter imo.

It started with backing the Saffers to batter Ireland (at awful odds but I needed to get things going) and then €100 on Hurricane Fly to place. I know nothing about horse racing but I said to myself that if this came off that I could take it as a sign that it could be my time. Always a tricky situation trying to watch a horse race at work but I handled it nicely!

I thought there was alot of value around in the football. Its just my opinion. Usually my strategy is to lay teams or to hit correct score but I really went for the wins this week. There was alot of luck involved if Im being honest. 4 or 5 of the matches were narrow 1 goal victories but thats not my concern. The teams won and thats all that matters. I was really liking Madrid at 1.35 against Lyon considering CR7 was fit again and Chelsea at 1.68 against Mancinis bus parkers. Utd at 1.54 and 1.44 against Marseille and Bolton were big gambles but they came off so we'll take that!  There was a glorious inevitability to that late Berbatov winner  but I still needed a change of trousers after such was my delight! Inter Milan also enjoyed contributing to my high blood pressure this week with a narrow victory over Lecce who were actually decent on the day. Finished off the weekend sneaking a few quid on the Porto match. They're up there with Barca on the reliability scale.

Think I might just go back to laying teams in the coming weeks. The wins arent as big but its a safer strategy and should still prove profitable if the right selections are made. The week was very satisfying but in all honesty I should have lost somewhere along the way. A €47 loss was the only damage done in the Spurs game. My heart couldnt take that every week. It was a bit sloppy and was chancerism at its finest but it turned out to be a good week so lets hope for more of the same.

Happy to have left all my green on Barca for the CL. They will destroy Shakhtar and then its either Tottenham or Madrid in the semis. We may have to be splitting our green at that stage but we'll just wait and see for now. Im just happy they're side of the draw doesn't contain Chelsea. For some reason, Chelsea are just a bad match up for Barcelona. Good luck everyone!


Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Champions League Outright Part Two

Had my fun with this little venture but not really in the mood to wait any longer. Cant see anybody else but Barca winning the Champions League but the plan was for them to get past l'arse and then lay off and thats what I've done. Still a handy win if Barca go all the way so I'll keep all the green on them. Outright markets are certainly something I'll look into more in the future though. A nice backup to have rather than relying on the 90 mins of chaos time after time!

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Ashes Crashes!

Unbelievable scenes. Had no investment on the match but thats the most excited I've been over sport in a long long time. Tears in the eyes by the end of it tbh. So many reasons why it was such a great victory. Kevin O Brien  the match hero, puts to bed all the shite that we need aussies/saffers to make up our cricket team (no that would be you England). Fastest WC century. Highest chase in World Cup history. It was against the English....!!! Jimmy giving KOB lip as well during his innings. There will only be one winner there and its not the Lancashire tit.

The media has really latched onto it over here. On every radio station and front pages of all the newspapers. Really is tremendous. Just cant believe how well they held their nerve when they got close. O Brien, Cusack and Mooney were just so cool throughout and then TJ hitting his first ball for 4 off the petulant Broad. Was no chance for them after that. Deary me, English were just awful throughout that innings apart from Swann. Got exactly what they deserved. They have such a poor attitude when they play associate sides. Got away with it against the Dutch but not this time. If this had been Pakistan then there would have been outrage at all the poor bowling, misfields etc and no doubt an ICC investigation!!

Biggest ever gubbing on betfair?? Has to be close. I cant think of anything like it. I remember a few million being done on Barca a few years back when they were 3-1 up against Villareal with 10 mins to go. And there was a Henin tennis match where she was 5-1 up against someone in the final set and lost but I think this is the biggest I've seen.

Low odds backers foiled again. There always seems to be alot of joy when the so called "money buyers" get hurt. Personally I've never taken too much joy in their demise. Im more worried about myself tbh. In my opinion everyone has backed ridiculously low odds at some point hoping for an easy few quid. I know I've certainly been there. The biggest problem with it is there really is nowhere to turn if things start to go against you. The odds get higher and you're either having to make the decision of trading out for a loss or hanging on and hoping that you're saved. Its just more hassle than its worth imo but everyone has their own thoughts. I'm sure some people have done alright backing the right selections at really low odds but it only takes one freak result/mistake/injury and the hard work is undone. But if you think sub 1.05 represents value..... Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Another pain in l'arse!!

Ouch! 400 that little defensive mix up set me back. Would have been a cracking week otherwise but what can you do! Sometimes games come along where the keeper has a blinder and 2 clowns combine at the exact same moment to utterly do your nuts. Thats the game! Its why we love it and hate it in equal measure. Anything can happen. No complaints and we will carry on. Still in profit so lets keep going.

Had to put in alot of hard work over the past couple of weeks as things just seem to be getting a little bit tough. Italy still very hit and miss for finding wins but Fiorentina and Udinese are putting in good displays and are always decent prices. Alexis Sanchez scoring 4 last Sunday!! That will raise his price tag further. Apparently he wants to play for Utd.... Looks quality every time I've seen him. 35-40 million is the reported price. Not really the Utd price range of the last couple of seasons.... Any more homeless dudes for around the 7 million mark Carlos Queiroz??

Poor old Real Madrid backers on Sunday night. Not the fact that Ade and CR7 both hit the post but Karims miss hurt them big time! For anyone who didnt see it, 5 mins to go, ball squared to Karim, a few yards out and gets his legs in a tangle. Oh dear. Give me Chicharito any day over that French tart.

Lost a bit of money on the tennis in the Djoker Lopez match. Just lost my nerve and traded out. The right thing to do when you're having doubts but a pain when the guy you backed goes on to win any way. Just have to keep telling yourself it was the right thing to do which it was.......

Also been messing around with the cricket. The Bangladesh Irish market was just insane. It was more entertaining watching the market than the match but I was gutted for Ireland. At one stage when it was tight, the market moved 50 ticks for 4 leg byes. Crazy. I was worried that we wouldnt be able to chase anything over 180 against the spin attack and unfortunately was right. Also Andrew White at 5??? Said on the betfair forum he was 3 places too high before a ball was bowled to him and thats how it turned out. Looked all over the place. KOB a much better number 5. We'll give England an alright game tomorrow and Dockrell will enjoy playing against his future employers....

Following on from the last post, the outright CL market surprised me. Barca reached as low as 2.4 in the outright when they were 1-0 up against l'arse. No way I thought it would go that low and at the time was feeling pretty smug. That quickly changed! Barca are around 3.35ish now but Im going nowhere. I'll stick with them and hope they get past l'arse before doing anything. If they dont then the money is gone and life will go on. Certainly the outright market is something I'll be looking more at in the various competitions next season. Good luck everyone! Cheers.