Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Road to recovery....??

I've had 3 bets since Saturdays disaster. Won 113 on the Bolton Man Utd match (thought it was 117 in my last post), 40 on Villarreal Malaga match last night and 50 on Chelsea tonight. Looks like the comeback is on!

Thats pretty good going though. €203 in 3 bets. I'll take that all day long. Didnt have to do anything stupid either. Everything  went nice and smoothly. Malaga were actually the better side in the second half last night even though they were down to ten men. I like watching Villarreal matches alot. Always seems to be goals or at least a good open match. Its interesting how a goal fest in the first half of a match never seems to lead to a barrage of goals in the second half. You'd think last night that at 2-3 at half time and Malaga down to 10 that more goals would follow. I feel sorry for the poor bastard out there that ploughed into over 5.5 goals at half time. We've all been there. Its not fun. I think people are better off laying 0-0 at half time if the first half was goaless rather than assuming that an open first half leads to an open second half. I dont know. Its a strategy that I've thought about many times but Im just too busy focusing on match odds. Maybe I'll run a trial on it and see what happens.

So anyway, on to Chelsea tonight. Had no problem going against Marseille. I genuinely believe that the French sides are among the weakest in the champions league compared to Spain, England, Germany, Italy and Portugal.  Both French sides were beaten tonight incidentally. Its just a very poor league at the moment. Chelsea drifted 7-8 ticks overnight for some reason and Marseille came in from 11.5 to 9.2. I can only think that people were concerned with no Lampard and Drogba but Malouda and Essien have been the standouts for Chelsea this season and as long as they were both playing I was happy. I also believe Anelka is better with no Drogba but Im sure many people have differing opinions. I must admit, I never used to get all the Michael Essien hype. Always thought he was a handy player, nothing more. But I have been unbelievably impressed with him this season. Chelsea are just better when he's there. Ancelottis decision to release so many midfielders in the summer is starting to make sense now. Carlo knew! Still think there is too much premature ejaculation regarding Chelseas start to the league though!

Funny how l'arse and Madrid both find victories tonight! Oh where oh where was that on Saturday?? Bunch of feckers. The joys of gambling! I also seem to have a few more followers!! 8 in total although I accidentally became a follower of myself so its only really 7! I tried to undo it but cant. Ah well, if you're not going to love yourself then who are you gonna love?? Cheers to mets for the comment on the last post as well. Always nice when someone else gets involved on the blog and to get a bit of feedback. Dont be shy folks. All the best and good luck.


Monday, September 27, 2010

A Real pain in l'arse

Christ, Saturday was a nightmare. Worst day for the blog I think. Sigh! I decided to change strategy and become more aggressive and I picked the wrong weekend to do it!

It started off ok. Played with the correct score market on the city match and won about 80 but after that everything went tits up. I was getting edgy by the end of last week because I felt that I wasnt progressing as fast as I maybe should be so I wanted to change that on Saturday. I just became to stupid and aggressive. Not the first time its happened. Will it be the last??? Arsenal let me down badly. Like what can you do?? All contingency plans go out the window when a team goes 0-2 down in about a minute. Then I decided to chase huge with Real Madrid and that was that! It was like watching the old batman with all those words appearing on the screen: CRASH, BANG, WALLOP, KAPOW!!

Everytime I've lost a bet on the blog I've asked myself the same thing. Would I place that bet again in the same situtation?? The answer has always been yes but on Saturday night after assessing things it really was a poor performance. An Arsenal side with no Fab, RVP, Theo and Wilshere only on the bench against a WBA side in good form. Poor bet! And also the Almunia factor has to be taken on board when examining l'arse. A Madrid side who have been very unconvincing away from home against a Levante side who were always going to battle for their lives when the big boys came to town. Another really poor bet.

I decided to go back to the tried and trusteed tactics on Sunday and won 117 on the Utd Bolton match. It just goes to show, if it aint broke.... I really shouldnt have tried to force things. Everything was going well. Let myself down badly and really have to start basically from scratch again.

Anyway, its times like this that the blog is for. Its easy to sing when you're winning. Look at me Im great!! But when you become a royal fuck up its tougher to talk but the lessons have to be learnt and losses have to be looked at. This is my last week in Galway before moving to dublin. It will be the biggest dose of reality that I will get in my life but I'll talk more about it before the big move.

So anyway, very disappointed but have to get back on the horse. The blog high was about 1800 and the lowest was down about 300-400. Im up about 300 now so we're not going to panic or blame our luck. You cant change tactics and increase stakes at the same time and expect to come out the other side a richer man. Things take time. Experimentation needs smaller betting before you can really go for it. Unfortunately I've had to learn that the hard way. Good luck!


Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Taking it easy

Im still in my sort of relax and take it easy betting mood. Its  nice. I havent had the time to stay at home and bet, hence theres alot less daily activity.

A very small win on porto on monday night followed by a small win with Real tonight. Im surprised I havent bet on more porto matches to be honest. Got involved with them on a weekly basis last season. I said in my second or third post of the blog that porto would have a great season! Its strange that I could see they were going to do well but havent put my money where my mouth is! Usually im good at doing that! Strange one. One of the reasons has been that porto matches have clashed with other matches i've been betting on which is always a pain in the ass.

It was a strangeish market actually. Nacional had lost their last 2, porto won every game this season, porto won there 0-4 last season and were 1.5 an hour before kick off. Porto name their strongest side and drift to 1.6 by kick off?? Answers on the back of a postcard to that one. They won 2-0 comfortably and also missed a penalty.... Sometimes I just dont get the way a market reacts. Anyway, won a whopping 10 euro! Happy days.

Had to go out for dinner tonight so a small bet on madrid before i left. Came back and saw they won 3-0 and there was 3 red cards in the match. Dont know what happened and dont really care. Add another 28 euro to that profit column please.

So the blog is now sitting on a profit of €1400. Pleasing scenes. Still under a month old. Christ, if fed had beaten djoker in the semi i could be over 3k! How thin that line is when you're in a mode of what essentially is kamikaze betting. Things have been alot more relaxed since the US Open ended. Lower liability, more planned betting and just alot less stress. Im really enjoying the way things are going at the moment. Lets hope it can continue! Good luck everyone!


Sunday, September 19, 2010

Tipping along nicely

A solid weekend by all accounts. Made 200 over Saturday and Sunday and the most liability I had on any bet was around the 200ish mark so that was satisfying in itself. Im managing to avoid doing stupid things at the moment. I was sitting there at half time of the chelsea match looking at the over 4.5 market. The match was 4-0 at half time and over 4.5 was 1.05/1.06 and I was just thinking, no way do I need the stress of hoping for another goal. There were times when I would have thrown hundreds at something like that. Not today. Im sticking strictly to match odds for the moment and will continue to do so as long as it keeps going well.

Started with the Bayern match yesterday and went from there. Bayern really are struggling at the moment but if somebody had been looking to land a 0-0 for the weekend then I hope they went for this match. Hardly a surprise. This fixture was 0-0 last season and Koln said they were coming for the same again this season so they were layed accordingly! And 0-0 it finished! Didnt fancy any of the 3pm premier league matches. They all looked a bit dodgy. Then on to the Arsenal match and the Madrid match after that. No real scary moments in those. The Bent goal didnt affect me at all although its good to see Wenger always having a moan. The Madrid match was nervy at times but felt I had control of the situation but its easy to say that after the event!

Then it was on to more of the same again today really. A lay of liverpool. They are gash at the moment. Absolute gash. Has Torres ever looked less interested?? And Maxi is dogshit. Poulsen looks like another poor acquisition and Raul Meireles looks like he'll nick the wheels off your car when you're in to do the shopping. Insane that they even managed to get it back to 2-2! Anyway, berbs made sure justice was done. A cracking hat trick by all accounts. The defensive mistakes are still a concern. What was Evans thinking to go sliding in on Torres in those conditions?? Then the shite wall for the Gerrard free kick. 2 shambolic pieces of defending. Have to laugh at Gerrard kissing the camera again. May as well kiss it son, cos you wont be kissing any trophies! Anyway, a win in the barca match capped off a relaxing weekend really! A far cry from the madness of the US Open! Still miss it though! Watched the tennis today as well. Fair play to Serbia! Janko and Nole getting wins today to beat the Czech Republic 3-2. Think they'll give the french a decent game in the final but I think the french will win it.

Not really sure what the plan is for this week. Carling Cup?? Hmmm, no thanks! Could be a very quiet week but thats no harm! As I said a few days ago, we're tipping along nicely so there's no need to go looking for trouble. €1361 is the profit for the blog and its not even a month old so Im happy for now!

On a final note, its not often that a comment on the betfair forum makes me laugh out loud but I thought that this one was a beauty from Reaseheath:

think Berba got a bit distracted when he got the gig doing the voiceovers for those comparethemarket.com adverts but seems to have adjusted to both roles now


Saturday, September 18, 2010


Ok, so I got the McNulty hissyfit out of my system. I dont have anything against the guy but he's just becoming another utd bashing journalist with too much time on his hands. Come on Phil, give us something interesting to read you tart!

Anyway, after strangely not having a bet wednesday, I was starting to wonder what was wrong?? Confidence just felt a little low. I was looking at the matches and seeing the potential pitfalls rather than the potential winnings which is a bit strange for me. Anyway, decided to play around a bit on thursday. I cant tell you how weary I am of the Europa League though. You really have to know where teams stand with it before you start piling in. Some teams make it their main priority for the season, others just couldnt give a rats ass. From my previous experiences with the europa league, you get far more goals than champions league matches so thats something to think about for the future. We had 78 goals in 24 matches on Thursday night with only one 0-0. I started off by taking it easy with the Juventes match. But nothing is straightforward with Juve these days! Go 0-2 down, go ahead 3-2 and concede with the last kick of the game! Second 3-3 in 4 days for Juve at home! Anyway, made a  profit so cant complain. Made a small bit on the liverpool match after that. Christ, watching a whole liverpool match. Its painful.

Then decided to dabble in MLS for the first time on the blog. I watch alot of MLS without betting too much but the confidence was up a bit. Wasnt risking anywhere near what I risk on matches at the weekend but another small win. It all adds up! Dallas would have actually won the game easily if they hadnt the man sent off imo. Red Bulls are poor, particularly their defense. They just let players coast past them. They're not too bad attacking but Henry really couldnt give a shit. Angel the main threat and he actually looks like he cares. I dont mind MLS. They did ok to get the draw, even if it came from an og. The matches are entertaining in their own way but everything is just so American. If you were to close your eyes and just listen to the commentary you would think its NFL thats on. But it is watchable, particularly when Real Salt Lake play.

Then tonight I had a small bet in the under 17 womens match between Japan and Ireland! Random! Bet came in as well. Europa League, MLS and Womens under 17's in the space of 24 hours! Crazy scenes!

Dont know what the plan for tomorrow is. I have to work all day so could well miss out on a good few matches which is a shame but hopefully I can get involved in the Spanish matches in the evening and maybe the Arsenal match. We'll see how the mood is tomorrow! Dont want to go looking for trouble either. Sunday looks like a belter of a punting day as well and the blog is in good profit so I dont need to rush things.


Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Thanks Phil!

No bets tonight but I'd like to thank Phil Mcnulty for proving my point! I said yesterday that he would have an article about fergies team selection and liverpools number 1 fan delivered today!

Still waiting on your match reports from Liverpools loss at Eastlands and the dire performance at Birmingham Phil......


Dull stuff

The Open has been over for a day and already Im missing the late nights! More importantly, what a dull match that was at Old Trafford this evening. Utd backers must have heart failure when they saw the team sheet. I think everybody has to learn the hard way that waiting for team news before having a bet is imperative. Last year I layed Besiktas at Old Trafford before waiting for the team news. Fergie puts out a carling cup lineup, Besiktas win 1-0 and Im left feeling like a knob!

Today was very strange though. Lets take everything into consideration. Utd had a poor last few minutes on the saturday lunchtime game. Nobody talks about the importance on bouncing back in the next match more than fergie. Also, utd dont play again until Sunday which gives the team 5 days rest. It was the first group game of a new champions league campaign. It was against Rangers, a club that treated fergie like shite when he played for them because he married a catholic girl. Why not go all out???  Win the early group games and then tinker once you've qualified?? Win the home games at least. I just dont know. Some of the media will have a field day. Im expecting a Phil McNulty article tomorrow on fergies arrogance. McNulty, a liverpool fan, never seems to comment on his own teams limp displays. Thats strange. Anyway, it appears that it was a blunder by fergie whichever way you want to look at it. I thought the team selection was ok. However, with Berba in the form of his utd career surely he has to keep on getting picked. Scholes cant play every match we know that. Carricks injured and Ando not match fit so a midfield of Gibson and Fletcher was the way it had to be. Rooney still way out of sorts as well. Was just one of those nights. Everything just felt off. Absoloutely gutted for Valencia. Looked like nothing happened but if you watch the replay his ankle is just barely hanging off his foot. Out for the season. Heartbreaking. But the player utd always miss most when he isnt there is Evra. I've said it to whoever listens to my nonsensical ramblings on a number of occasions. Leave Evra out and utd will struggle. Anyway, hindsight is a beautiful thing. Lets hope for more exciting matches ahead!! Madrid Ajax tomorrow?? Oh dear god yes. Cue 0-0....

So from a betting perspective there were decisions to be made. My approach through the world cup was when I didnt fancy match odds that I would lay in the correct score market. That wasnt an option tonight because a team coming to play for a draw can go either way. A lay of rangers was really the only thing that I could come up with. Ah ya, its taking the easy way out but what else could I do?? They were always just going to play for the draw and I didnt have enough faith in utd to get the job done. Scoles, Berba and Nani werent even on the bench. There was nobody to save your bacon tonight if the first 11 didnt fire. The odds were a bit dire on laying rangers but I felt it was a winner and was willing to take that risk. Its not the way to go all the time obviously but tonight it was and thankfully it came in. You actually would have gotten worse odds on laying 0-0 rather than laying rangers which i thought was a bit odd. Rangers were always going to set up with a 9-1 formation so you would expect the odds to be higher on them rather than a 0-0?? More chance of a 0-0 rather than a Rangers win??? Yes?? No?? Maybe so?? I'll leave that for the regular 0-0 layers to decide. I layed 0-0 a few times in the world cup and thankfully it came off every time i did. Its one of those bets though isnt it?? Just looks so easy. Yes, I only need a goal. Yup somebody will definitely score.  Easy! But the main issue I have with it is when to decide to get out?? Because you only need that one goal to go in the chances are you're going to wait it out! And then, inevitably a 0-0 will find you. Although its a beautiful thing when that goal does come. Market suspends. Net bulges. The nervousness turns to elation. The bet cant lose. Onwards and upwards. Everyones a winner baby thats the truth! If only it could be that simple. More football tomorrow. Good luck to us all!


Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Bye bye US Open

Well thats it. The end to 2 weeks of late nights, ups and downs and a few mini heart attacks along the way. This US Open was a hell of a ride and I have no regrets. I see it as my last tennis hurrah before I enter the working world. Realistically, once I start working, the days of betting on matches of a slam all day every day will be over so I definitely didnt hold back on this one.

It was a strange weekend overall. So many gubbings in the football it was untrue. Barcelona losing 2-0 to Hercules?? Also carnage at goodison with the 2 late goals. I was delighted Saturday evening to be up 140 considering many would have had done their conkers by that stage. Unfortunately the day didnt finish so well losing 1k in the fed djoker match. Absoloutely no complaints at all. Yes, I expected Fed to serve much better than 53% on first serves and make alot less than 66 unforced errors but the fact of the matter is I could have traded out and I didnt. But, he takes one of those two match points and its party time. It would be nice to never lose a bet and never make a mistake but life isnt like that. Its amazing how thin the line is between success and nowhere. Then on to Sunday and there really wasnt anything on at all. Managed to make 25 on the liverpool brum match somehow but that was that.

Didnt bet as big on the final today but delighted to make 190ish on Rafa and saw history being made in the process. Love the bull. Great man to have on your side when you need a bit of a bounce back after a dodgy weekend. Should go down as the greatest ever surely. The grand slam at 24. 9 majors already. Epic. The secret to his new serve is down below!

So what can I take from this US Open?? An overall profit of 249.13.... Its ok considering the time and effort put in but the fact that I was 1200 down after 3 days makes the profit far more satisfying. I just couldnt end the Open on those terms after 3 days! No way! At least it shows I can definitely fight because I was really in the shitter after the Wednesday of week 1. Fed losing hurt the profit big time but I got that far by taking risks so I was never going to hold back. He who dares....

Its a tough situation I have going on with tennis. The best way to describe it is.... Well think of football as my reliable wife. She'll always be there. Fits nicely into my schedule. Doesnt make a nuisance of herself and will be there for the rest of my days having my back. Then there's tennis. My mistress. Gives me unbelievable amounts of joy but alos leaves me feeling like a right dick at times. The problem with a mistress is she's not convenient, shes risky, she's expensive in the long term and you never really learn from your mistakes in time enough to avoid eventually being caught. I definitely need a change of tactics anyway. Probably just green out and call it a day. I get myself into positions to lock in a profit but let the bet ride. It will just hurt ya too much. Another thing is, tennis comes along in these bursts and I just become this tennis adrenaline junkie trying to make a profit in as many matches as possible before the tournie runs out and it clouds the decision making process. At least I get some time off before deciding the best way forward. Only really davies cup coming up and not sure I've much interest in getting involved. As I've said, I'll look back on the open positively. I proved that I could fight back from a bad position so now just need to focus on preserving profits when Im in a good position. Was a hell of a ride!

So its back to football for now. Ah yes. Thats better. Champions league tomorrow night to focus on. Will get involved in Utd Rangers, just dont know how yet. Was looking back and the overall profit for the blog now stands at 1072.33 after just over 3 weeks. Feels like I've been talking nonsense for longer to be honest! Nah, Im happy with that for now. Was down about 400 at one stage so things are on the up. Just keep avoiding the gubbings and we'll be fine. Im enjoying it and I hope my 2 followers are too! Ha! Definitely puts things into perspective when you have to think and talk about them after rather than using the magic memory delete button. Lets hope we can keep it going. All the best.


Saturday, September 11, 2010

Weekend is here

Was a quiet enough night. Will be good to get an earlyish night ahead of a busy day of sport tomorrow. Thought I'd try and find some groove on the football as I've been in tennis mode for nearly two weeks but it didnt go according to plan.

Ended up losing 50 on the benfica match. They really are a poor outfit at the moment. I thought their win 2 weeks ago would have been the start of a good run but it appears not. Last season they had the "we'll score more than you approach" which is fine but after losing Ramires and Di Maria in the Summer they're not scoring enough and still conceding too much. Their keeper Cesar is an absolute liability to begin with. He was dropped after a dreadful start to the season only for his replacement to get sent off in the next match so he's back in for now. Just looks clueless when dealing with a cross of any kind and constantly parries shots into the path of incoming strikers. What a tit. Was at fault for that second goal tonight imo. They're also lacking creativity at the moment. Coentrao looks like the only player capable of creating anything but even when he does the chances arent being put away. Its an attractive strikeforce on paper: Cardozo, Saviola and Aimar but its just not happening at the moment. Already its looking like Porto are going to cruise to the title. Strange thing to say when we're only in the fourth week of the portugese league. Anyway, we'll see what happens. Staying away from Benfica matches looks the safest option for the future.

So it was back to tennis to make a profit for the day. I didnt fancy anything on the first match. Wanted to see how the conditions were and Woz has had it extremely handy in this tournament so far. Fair play to Vera though. Looking very cool at the moment and played very well tonight. Was a comfortable win in the end actually. I said the last day Woz doesnt make many mistakes but she was a bit all over the place today. Still only 20 though and will have her day in the future. No doubt about that. Decided to be patient for the second match. Ended up having 100 on Kim at 1.63. Cant risk the same amounts I do on the men because lets face it, you're not depending on one person to play better than the other. In the WTA you're depending on one player to play less shit than the other so having a 1k liability in that scenario is not fun. Also in a 3 set match, the market can get away from you very quickly and the matches arent even as good to watch.

I just felt Kim had more control of what was happening and has been more impressive in the previous rounds. Everything looks so awkward with Venus and lots of things have to click for her serve to work. She cant rely on it like Serena can. Dumping the backhand into the net has been a regular occurrence throughout this tournament as well and we saw it again tonight. The tiebreak in the second was crucial. Venus on the first 2 points of her serve throwing in 2 double faults! Classic! When you oppose somebody and they do that in an important tiebreak it just feels like Christmas. Kim still had her dodgy moments in the third but she's one of the best players on tour to put them out of her mind and keep going for her shots. Love it! Always nice to get a day back in profit when you've had a loss. Something satisfying about it! There doesnt seem to be much love lost between Kim and Venus though. She didnt even look at Venus when they shook hands at the end. Usually Kim is all kisses to her opponent. Maybe she doesnt enjoy the fact that a man like Venus has made a living off playing womens tennis...

Backed The Bull last night as well after Nandos first service game. I just felt the windy conditions were going to affect him too much. Wasnt feeling to smug when Nando went 4-2 ahead but as the set went on Rafa got better and better. I was surprised it took him that long. He usually gets to grip with windy conditions straight away. Loved the Rafa service game at 2-4 down though. Threw in a few come ons and fist pumps from nowhere. They were completely needless but definitely raised his intensity and he broke next game! From there on it was just complete dominance. I love it when a plan comes together. Youzhny up next tomorrow?? Christ 1.08 is short. I've never ever liked Youzhny though. Looks like the type of guy who would screw your girlfriend and then put a recording of it on the internet.... From a tennis perspective he has a quality backhand but you have to feel Rafa is good enough and will be able to tactically win the battle, not like stan who would come to the net against the Youzhny backhand. Idiot. Youzhny has dropped 5 sets on his way to the semis. Rafa had dropped SERVE once... Still though. 1.08 is short!! Lets hope for drift tomorrow.

Not going into the weekend with much football confidence so! A few iffy fixtures tomorrow as well, particularly after the international break. Chelsea away to West Ham, Utd away to Everton. Barca short against Hercules! It feels like a day that could go either way. Lots to ponder. Anyway, enjoy the Friday Feeling!


Thursday, September 9, 2010

More late nights

Completely lost all awareness of night and day now. Love it though. Staying up until all hours betting on tennis. Its what its all about. Will miss it when the open is over. Staying up late with nothing to do. Starting to run out of matches as well. Wouldnt be surprised if I dont end up betting tomorrow. Will be working when Stan Youz starts and Im not thrilled with the odds being offered on Rafa. Anyway, we'll see what happens. No point betting just for the sake of it. Tempting to keep going because the last 7 days have been epic. Lots of football on at the weekend to look forward to so no need to rush into anything for the next couple of days.

Another profitable night in which I made over 200. Pretty good going I think. As I said, we're running out of matches fast. The unbelievably windy conditions made everything a little more uncomfortable from a punting perspective. No problems opposing Monfils though. Djoker in a nice groove his last few matches and Gael is just a clown. As talented as anyone out there but just pathetic really. He just seems so desperate to get the crowd on his side that what is actually going on is insignificant. Im probably being too blunt here but its just how I feel about the guy. Wasting his talent. Anyway, credit Djoker, played the conditions better and was always in charge of the rallies. Comfortable evening for him and his backers thankfully!

The Woz match was interesting. I like her game. Its watertight. Very few errors and can pick her winners at the right time. Makes less mistakes than her opponent and in the WTA thats good enough. Odds were woeful though. I expected drift because I thought the conditions would even up the match and thats what happened in the second set but a Cibulkova error was always around the corner. She played some cracking points though.  Was a much better match than the dogshit that the four ladies produced last night. Even better considering the wind.

So 2/2 and on to Fed. Just couldnt back him pre match. I was so tempted. Was on my mind all day. But the French Open was still in my memory. I really had to see which Soderling turned up before doing anything stupid.  As I said before, Soda is just a player that has screwed me royally in the past. I actually think he played a better first set than fed. The ump screwed him out of a break point early on but I always felt it was even. Was reading on bbc there about a fed masterclass and all that but Soderling just played awful on the big points and thats what it came down to. I suppose thats the game really. But Fed broken 3 times in the match by a statistically poor returner?? Was more of a Swedish choker masterclass rather than a Fed masterclass imo.  Can Nole and Nadal hold their nerve better than the sod?? I'd say so. I think I'd still give Nadal the outright edge from what I've seen. How much did the Ferrer win take out of Verdasco?? Surely that has something to do with the short price on the bull tomorrow... Spanish Bull V Swiss Goat is very much on for Sunday.

Will be great to get back to football at the weekend. Will be a culture shock! Football has always been my main focus. The blog has basically been a tennis blog so far but thats just because of the Open. I dont get the big wins on football though. Usually just happy to tip along at a nice pace. The tennis is where I really let loose. It can be tough to balance the two. More than happy with the way things are going at the moment. Feel like doing the dance below??


Wednesday, September 8, 2010

The run continues

Was a bit concerned after the Stan win that I might get a bit carried away with things and end up losing but thankfully the last 2 days have been pretty steady.

A great nights tennis last night. Well from the mens side anyway. The women were just completely gash. Double faults, errors and breaks of serve galore. Was a bit painful to watch actually. Managed to win on Venus but it was uneasy viewing. But screw it. I'd rather a player plays poorly and still wins rather than playing well and losing.

Backed Rafa last night as well. Alright the odds were really poor but I was happy enough to take them. Feliciano just isnt in the right decade though is he?? The hair. The headband. The clothes that dont look like they fit. The state of that backhand. The serve volleying. Just the whole show. He looked clueless last night tbh. I just never know what the gameplan is with Lopez. Plan A go out and serve well. Plan B go out and serve even better. Maybe he should write some tactics out on a page and have a look at them after the warm up for the match like Monfils does. Not that it would help him of course. 23rd seed?? Laughable tbh. It showed his coach after 3 games. The guy looked ready to cry. I think the Spaniards are in awe of Rafa anyway. Whens the last time any of them have given him a decent match?? And no, Lopez beating Rafa at Queens most certainly doesnt count. Probably Verdasco at Oz 09?? Anyway thats who's up next. Cracking match with Ferrer. 2-0 down and he turns his cap backwards and starts absoloutely pelting the ball. Oh Nando you are a rebel. Great stuff though. Back to the wall. Might as well let loose and go all out instead of playing emmmmm dropshots (are you listening Murray??)

Hopefully a Rafa Fed final awaits. Im really hoping for it. Rafa has stepped it up really well and the ball is just pinging off Feds racquet. Soderling tonight for Fed though. It was be just like that Swedish bastard to mess things up. Soderling for me is just a jinx. When I oppose him he plays like god. When I back him he plays like a tart. Act accordingly tonight please Robin.

Im happy with things at the moment. Obviously have to make the most of a grandslam while its here. Body clock is all over the place but Im making the right decisions at the moment so thats pleasing. Won on the scotland match as welll. Wasnt too fussed about the late winner. A draw would have done anyway. Poor old Pepe Reina. Gets a start for Spain last night and then has a mare. Awwww. Well thats what you get for celebrating winning the World Cup like a mad man when you have contributed approximately 0 minutes in the whole tournament. Go shine your head you tit. Wont be starting for Spain again for quite a while. Anyway, not to worry, the europa league awaits.....

Monday, September 6, 2010

The drinks are on Stan!

Just impossible to know what to say at times! Tennis can just leave you speechless. Came back from Achill today after having a break away from the betting for a day which I was hoping would do me good but I had know idea I would have this kind of night! Everything was going swimmingly. Kim, Nando, The Bull and Venus all got the job done to leave me at around 300ish profit. Delighted with my nights work. No need to do anymore betting then??? You would think so but just as I got paid from The Bull battering Simon I decided to focus all my attention on Muzza V Stan which I had been following while watching Rafa anyway.

Firstly, I dont like Andy Murray. He always seems to have a sort of limp on him anyway which makes me nervous whenever I back him. I rate his game extremely highly and his dismantling of The Bull at Flushing Meadows in 08 was one of the best performance I've ever seen. Remember, this was a Nadal who had just won Olympic Gold, dismantled Fed at Roland Garros and also beaten Fed at Wimbledon in that epic final (although he would have won in straight sets if the rain hadnt come imo!) So for Muzza to take him apart like he did showed just what he's capable of. But he's just tactically poor. He attacked from start to finish in that match. Even when they came back on day 2 he didnt hold back and thoroughly deserved his win. However, too often we see an overuse of the dropshot, constant happiness to defend, moody rants to himself and his camp and he just has a face like a slapped arse. I dont necessarily think he's overhyped by the British public or media because the talent is there for all to see and he has had some great wins and is definitely a potential grandslam winner but theres alot to sort out. Needs to find a coach anyway. Just dont understand how somebody with his tempermant could get rid of his main coach weeks before a grandslam. McClagan was perfect for Murray so to tell him to piss off was just very strange. Having Coretja, a clay court specialist and your Mum as your main coaching team going into a hardcourt grandslam just stinks. Miles is probably sitting back with a Whiskey tonight feeling pretty good about things.

On to the match with Stan. Firstly, I do feel sorry for people who got involved in the first 2 sets of the match and who were setting themselves up for a trade. To see both players suddenly take injury and throw the market into complete disarray must have been sickening to say the least. Murray 1.03 layers must have been creaming themselves though. You could argue that Murray pre match backers could have layed off anyway but a set up and serving for the second set you would think your guy would get the job done. Stan had been playing well though. Anyway, what followed was just crazy/ridiculous/entertaining/laughable/distressing, take your pick. Suppose it depends who your money was on at that point. Murray comes out after losing the second set looking a bit shattered. As I said, I always think he limps anyway but he definitely wasnt looking right and the market made Stan favourite at 4-1 up in the third. Then all of a sudden Stan pulls a muscle at the top of his thigh and immediately calls for the trainer and gets about  mile of strapping put on his leg. At this stage the market didnt have a clue. Murray goes back to being big favourite again but it looked like you could just toss a coin at this point.

I was sitting there smug thinking Im glad I've nothing on this but if I had been watching this instead of The Bull who knows what type of shit I would have got myself in. Anyway, Stan goes on to win the set and Murray looks done really. To me Stan looked fine and was showing no affects of the injury so I was surprised that his price was as high as it was. He was playing well also! Anyway, decided to make my move in the fourth set. This was just too good of an opportunity to pass up. You could wait along time for something to come along where it just feels right. I decided that if Stan gets in a good position Im gonna bet and Im gonna bet big. With break points in an early Muzza service game in the fourth he was 1.52. Managed to get 1000 on it and Stan breaks the next minute. Was just perfect. I might never time a 1.52 as well in my life again.  Stan stayed below 1.2 for the rest of the set and won it pretty comfortably although there was the odd signs of life from Murray but he just looked like he wouldnt be able to take anymore. You have to wonder about Murray though. Hes obviously struggling so you think he would start going for winners??? No. Not Andy. Attempts dropshots galore like the clown that he is. Murray backers must have been sickened about how things turned out. I suppose thats the game. Tennis can be very cruel when you're a punter. Maybe more lessons that its essential to green up?? I dunno. I generally dont go all green but it has cost me in the past! Particularly in tennis.

Anyway, in commemoration of Stan giving me my biggest win in as long as I can remember my theme tune for the day is Eminems Stan. Also listening to Flo Rida - Club Cant Handle Me because it just makes me feel good! Im feeling great right now. I said in my last post I needed to give tennis the respect it deserves and it really is the truth but when its good its just so good. Winning on Janko beating Roddick and now Stan over Murray were just huge moments for me. The Janko one started the comeback and the Stan one was just such a great feeling. Essential that I dont get carried away. Really dont know how week 2 is going to go for me as I have to work in the evenings I think so it could leave me with no chances to bet on the matches in the day session which would be a shame. Anyway, will just enjoy the moment for now. Got the blog profit back up to around 900 which is also very pleasing. I must actually keep a proper track of the blog profit. I'll put it on my to do list.... Todays profit is below. As the man once said, "we've had worse days".




Saturday, September 4, 2010

Fighting back with Serbs, Spaniards and a crazy market

Decided I wasnt ready to give into tennis, not yet anyway. After the insane 24 hours that caused the blog to be at a loss, I was desperate to make things right and quickly. Decided I just need to give tennis more respect. It can be a crazy sport from a punting perspective. There is just so much to take into perspective and you're dealing with one person to bring home the bacon not a team. If they have a bad day you're done.

My confidence was shot a few days ago. Was wrecked and just frustrated. I decided to get back on track with smaller stakes during the Janko Roddick match and what a match to decide to change strategy! The market was wrong throughout, just wrong. Janko was 2-1 up and battering Roddick in all the rallies and serving really well but because of Roddicks pisser at the umpire, the crowd getting loud and a few more aces Roddick remained favourite throughout the 4th set trading in the 1.9's with Janko above evens. It was inexplicable. Its not often I think a market is way off the mark but it really was on this occasion. I would have had Janko sub 1.5 and even then I think Im being generous. I know there was a possibility of a choke but still...!! I said a few days ago I wasnt happy with Roddicks game. Its not exactly the most insightful statement you'll ever hear. Anybody who has watched Roddick in the last few months can tell that he's just not effective. I dont mind Roddick at all. He has done extremely well to stay in the top 10 and has had a great career considering his talent. But his limitations are being exposed and his serve isnt winning him as many free points as it used to. Maybe its the mono and he will come back and have a good season next year but Im not counting on it. Fair play to Janko though what a legend. Belting the winners for fun. Was so good to watch. Completely outclassed Roddick and deserved the win. He also got my confidence back and got the blog back on track. He doesnt give a crap though does he Janko?? Wheels on his bag instead of carrying the thing. Dressing like a bit of a tart. His love of classic literature! Great stuff.

Wins on Juan Carlos Ferrero, Verdasco as well as the Djoker last night put me back into profit for the blog. I love watching Ferrero. I think he is different class. His expression never changes either. No fuss. No cartwheels when he hits a winner. No "why me" look on his face when someone hits a good shot against him. Just gets on with it. I also had Spanish commentators for that match. Didnt understand a word but the way they pronounced "Juan Carlos" was a little arousing particularly when he hit a win winner. I hope he can school Melzer tomorrow. Not a fan of Jurgen. In fact I dont trust any grown man who wears his cap backwards to look cool. Hewitt aside, how many of these "dudes" have actually won anything significant?? Anyway, we'll see what happens. The Nando win went off without a hitch. A double break of serve in every set. I love it when a plan comes together. A meeting with bandy next is the tie of the round.

Was happy to back Nole last night as well. Some might call it crazy after his first round performance but I had my reasons. Firstly it was a night match so no sun dramatics from Nole. Also he performed the same magic trick at Wimbledon, an awful performance in the first round followed by a huge improvement in his serve and overall play in the following rounds so I was expecting the same again. More significantly, Petz is a nutter and hasnt been able to buy a win since taking Nadal to 5 sets at Wimbledon. Him and Melzer even lost the first round of their doubles at this event and they won the Wimbledon doubles. Really is out of sorts. Probably still hammered from celebrating taking the bull to 5 at SW19. Wouldnt be Nole if there wasnt drama though. 2 sets and a break up and fails to serve out the match. A comical tiebreak followed but got the job done in the end. 3rd seed?? Wish he'd act like it! Blake in the night session tomorrow. Interesting.....

Didnt get involved in any of the football today which was a shame. Alot of the prices were crap and the only one I would have had any interest in was Ireland Armenia and I was on the motorway returning from Dublin when that match was on. Typical. Anyway Im up 152.60 for the blog which considering I had about as a disastrous 24 hours as I could have on Tuesday-Wednesday Im happy enough. The highest point was over a grand with the lowest being down 400ish. Very specific so I am..... Crazy week which sums up my betting really! I fought back well though which is satisfying in itself. Didnt chase, didnt give in, just knew I got it wrong and got on with it.

Been spending alot of time on the betfair forum recently. Fascinating place but from a punting perspective its about as insightful as dogshit. The horse racing forum where every second thread is a forumite blaming a jockey for their losses. Pathetic really but always love watching a good seethe. I dont know anything about horse racing but the forum is entertaining. Football forum where there is "free money" everywhere and liverpool fans starting constant threads about how crap utd are and how fergie has lost it. Is it 19 or 20 years now?? Im losing count. Anyway, this is their year. Torres injured tonight playing for Spain as well. Not that they need him of course.... Ngog coming along nicely. And then there is the tennis forum. Nobody loses there. Everybody greens up accordingly. Except when the match is fixed of course.... The forumite SimpleJack sums up the place nicely. When Nadal was about to lose the second set tonight he posted the following: "hope you ****ing idiots have learned your lesson , i got laughed at for saying there was a lot of tennis still to be played here , you lot look like a right stupid bunch of **** now." Then Nadal goes on to win the set and Jack very Simple reveals that he had backed Nadal all along. Sure he did, bloody idiot. Its a shame 70k's run came to an end tonight. His thread was the best one there by a long way. I followed his blog when he had it running and it was very good indeed. 

Got that job in Dublin anyway which starts in October. Very pleasing. Will probably get to go to the trading room up there at some point. Dont have any near Galway. Not that I need one really as personally I think its most beneficial when you're betting on racing in running and not tennis or football but would definitely like a day there anyway! Looks very swish. Dont think I'll get to bet tomorrow as I have to go to Achill for somebodys leaving do! Bollocks anyway. Wanted to keep the week going but maybe no harm in taking a break. Getting back into profit was good work. Would be a shame to make a balls of it again. Also added in a nice picture of a lady below for no reason at all.


Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Hmmm serious rethink required

Could do no wrong at the weekend, could do no right the past couple of the days. Oh the joys of it all. Gotta take the rough with the smooth but the facts are simple, I've had a mare. I was too cocky at the start of the US Open. After a very successful wimbledon where everything went my way I was thinking that the same would happen again and as soon as you think you know it all you're screwed.

Yesterday started off well by trading the djoker match and getting myself 130ish profit but everything has gone downhill since. Completely lost my nerve in the Verdasco match and ended up with a huge red on both players. Then came up to Dublin today and my mind is on this interview tomorrow and shouldnt have given it a go today as I just wasnt right but I went for it anyway and that lead to getting myself into more trouble. Anyway, the whole reason I started the blog was to learn valuable lessons and I've learnt a few over the past couple of days. Im not sorry about the way things have gone because risks are part of the game but I just need to pace myself much better. If the mind is elsewhere then I shouldnt be risking large amounts. It just leads to silly mistakes.

Im really not sure is tennis the way forward for me. When its good you can get on a roll and really make it pay like I did at SW19 but when it goes wrong it just goes so bad. With football I always feel like Im in control of the situation and have a good read on things and there are options at my disposal. With tennis Im all or nothing. I need to figure out a different way of doing things or else just leave it out altogether. Football is perfect because most of it is on at the weekends and that gives alot of time to prepare and plan. Its not the same for tennis. Im forcing myself to try and make it pay and thats just stupid. I said in my last post how tired I was after day one. I think that should have been a clue that I wasn't good to go and the interview was also on my mind.

So lots to think about. Should I carry on with the US Open and see what happens?? The blog is called he who dares after all! Should I just focus on football because thats where I make consistent profits? Maybe go back to cricket which has given me my biggest win in my gambling career... Anyway, Im about 300 down for the blog at the moment which isnt a disaster but after getting off to a flyer its disappointing. One of my biggest problems since I started gambling has been not having a fear of failure. Losing just doesnt annoy me as much as it should. When I should be seething I can just get back on the horse and go again. This attitude just isnt going to cut it is it?  Thats the main reason I set up the blog, for days like this when I have to explain why I cocked up things rather than just putting a loss behind me and moving on. Need to learn faster and decide whats the best way to progress. Losses cant be avoided but silly mistakes can and in the end thats what could make the difference.